Country Reports
2018
November 14, 2018
United Kingdom: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for United Kingdom
Description: The United Kingdom is set to exit the European Union in March 2019. It is now in the process of negotiating its withdrawal from the EU. Once an agreement is reached, there will be an implementation period through the end of 2020. Complex issues still remain to be resolved, including the future status of the land border with Ireland. Growth over the past year has been moderate. The post-referendum depreciation caused an increase in inflation, depressing private consumption. Business investment growth has been constrained by protracted uncertainty about the future trade regime and potential increases in trading costs. Nonetheless, slack in the economy is limited as weaker demand is matched by slower supply growth. Growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, conditional on a smooth Brexit transition and some recovery in labor productivity. A key downside risk is an exit
November 14, 2018
Iceland: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iceland
Description: Iceland is experiencing an economic slowdown that has reduced overheating concerns. Tourism growth has decelerated and the króna has stopped appreciating. Demand management has become easier, allowing the authorities to focus on medium-term priorities, including infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the environment. Risks, however, have become more evident. High fuel prices and other factors are challenging the airline business; world trade tensions are escalating; and the United Kingdom—a vital trading partner—is not yet assured of a smooth EU exit. Icelandic policies thus need to focus on further increasing resilience to shocks.
November 14, 2018
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Technical Assistance Report-Implementation of Risk Based Supervision
Description: The BoL has been implementing risk-based supervision (RBS) methods on a pilot basis. The RBS manual is now substantially complete, and the BSD staff are applying the RBS methods on a pilot basis. The BSD staff have drafted Institutional Profiles (IP) and Risk Assessment Summaries (RAS) for more than half of the banks; benchmarks and peer groups are being implemented; on-site reports of examination (ROX) have been utilized for several banks. The mission worked with off-site and on-site teams analyzing data for two pilot banks. Utilizing actual results for two pilot banks, the mission assisted BSD staff in identifying the risks, measuring and evaluating the impact on banks’ condition, and formulating appropriate conclusions and ratings.
November 14, 2018
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the External Sector Statistics Mission (November 20–December 1, 2017)
Description: At the request of the Republic of Uzbekistan authorities for technical assistance (TA) on external sector statistics (ESS), and with the support of the Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a mission from the IMF Statistics Department (STA) visited Tashkent from November 20 through December 1, 2017. This was the first TA mission on ESS since the Republic of Uzbekistan Presidential Order of September 12, 2017, “On Measures to Ensure the Accessibility and Openness of Economic and Financial Data for the Republic of Uzbekistan” was issued.
November 14, 2018
Bhutan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the External Sector Statistics Technical Assistance Mission (April 2–13, 2018)
Description: As part of the IMF-South Asia Regional Training and Technical Assistance Center (SARTTAC) work program, a technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted during April 2–13, 2018. The mission assisted the Royal Monetary Authority (RMA) in compiling and disseminating external debt statistics (EDS) consistent with the international investment position (IIP), reviewed the compilation method of direct investment statistics, and assessed the coverage of external flows related to hydropower projects.
November 14, 2018
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates the long-run economic impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom under two distinct assumptions for the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These illustrative scenarios entail different degrees of higher trade costs, a more restricted European Union migration regime and reduced foreign inward investment. A standard multicountry and multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to quantify the impact of higher trade barriers. There is substantial sectoral heterogeneity in the impact, and regions with higher concentrations of the more affected sectors are likely to confront greater losses. The empirical analysis suggests the speed of sectoral labor relocation across sectors has been relatively low in the UK. Irrespective of these empirical estimates, policies, such as retraining, would be critical to facilitate faster adjustment of the economy to the post-Brexit equilibrium thereby helping to minimize the associated costs to individuals and in aggregate.
November 12, 2018
Republic of Equatorial Guinea: First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: In May 2018, the IMF’s Management approved a 7-month Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), covering the period January 1–July 31, 2018. The main fiscal objectives of the SMP are to (i) reduce the budget deficit through non-hydrocarbon revenue mobilization and expenditure reduction while protecting social spending and (ii) address critical weaknesses in public financial management. The program also contains measures to improve the business climate, foster economic diversification, and lay the basis for improving governance and transparency. In addition, the program is providing a framework for bolstering capacity and helping build an adequate track record of performance as the basis for discussions on a potential Fund-supported program later this year.
November 9, 2018
Chile: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
Description: The Chilean economy is recovering from a prolonged slowdown that started with the decline in copper prices in 2011 and intensified over the past two years. The new administration, which took office in March, aims at reinvigorating investment and economic growth through structural reforms, but a divided Congress may constrain the reform space.