Country Reports
2019
August 23, 2019
Guinea: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: This paper discusses Guinea’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of Performance Criterion and Financing Assurances Review. Performance against end-December 2018 targets was satisfactory. All performance criteria and the indicative target (IT) on social safety net spending were met. A strong package of adjustment measures was implemented to achieve the end-2018 fiscal target. The ITs on tax revenue and the accumulation of new domestic arrears were not met. Program performance was satisfactory at end-March 2019, with most ITs met. Program-supported reforms advanced. Two of the four structural benchmarks were met, with substantial progress on the other two and full completion expected by. Additional adjustment measures are expected to be implemented to achieve a basic fiscal surplus in 2019, compensating for anticipated higher electricity subsidies and lower tax revenue. In parallel, public investment will be scaled-up to support growth. Advancing programmed tax measures and applying the petroleum prices adjustment mechanism will be key to support revenue mobilization.
August 15, 2019
Dominican Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Dominican Republic
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Dominican Republic discusses that the economy rebounded to a record high growth of 7 percent in 2018, with the positive momentum carrying into early 2019. The strong economic and policy performance has strengthened resilience to downside risks, but vulnerabilities remain. The fiscal position is under moderate sustainability and affordability pressures; key structural bottlenecks have not been addressed; and social outcomes can be further strengthened. Upcoming elections in 2020 are likely to dominate the near-term policy landscape. The outlook is favorable, with growth moderating to potential, inflation picking up toward target with fading supply shocks, and the external position normalizing. Risks are moderate and balanced: on the upside, solid income and credit growth could sustain domestic demand, while on the downside external risks are building up. Tighter fiscal policies are warranted by demand, sustainability and affordability considerations. A frontloaded adjustment, anchored on widening the tax base and mindful of the distributional effects of the adjustment measures, would help reverse the upward debt dynamics.
August 14, 2019
Cook Islands: Technical Assistance Report-International Financial Services Industry
Description: This technical assistance mission report underlines efforts to estimate the economic and revenue contributions of the international financial services industry in the Cook Islands. This report discusses the data and methodology used and presents the results. One matter that has been raised is that international companies are exempt from all taxes in the Cook Islands. The economic contribution of the international financial services industry can be measured by the value added of resident institutional units engaged, directly or indirectly, in the production of international financial services in the Cook Islands. The production of international financial services generates income which is distributed to the various agents or groups of agents who use that income to acquire goods and services for consumption now or later. The international financial services industry also contributes indirectly to gross domestic product through two channels. The first channel is through the goods and services that the industry purchases from other suppliers, such as electricity, accounting services, telecommunications, etc.
August 14, 2019
Union of Comoros: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Union of Comoros
Description: This paper discusses Union of Comoros’ Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI). Reflecting the large budgetary and external financing gaps arising from emergency assistance and reconstruction needs, the authorities are seeking financial assistance under the RCF and RFI exogenous shock windows. Comoros’ qualification is based on urgent balance of payments needs following a severe natural disaster. The authorities shared staff’s main policy recommendations. Efforts to address the cyclone’s impact will need to focus on mobilizing external financing, creating fiscal space by containing the wage bill, and spending mobilized resources in a well-targeted and timely manner. The authorities plan to address financial sector weaknesses, including by finding a solution for the critical situation of the postal bank, closely monitoring nonperforming loans, and addressing obstacles in the judicial system to facilitate the use of collateral and promote lending.
August 13, 2019
Malaysia: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission and Preceding Remote Support
Description: This technical assistance report on Malaysia explains the effort by the mission to support the Malaysian authorities in improving Government Finance Statistics (GFS) decision making. The mission achieved significant progress with respect to the development of a budgetary central GFS compilation system based on primary accrual accounting data. The mission, together with the authorities, successfully developed a compilation sheet to facilitate the largely automated compilation of a comprehensive set of GFS tables from the system. With respect to flows reported in the income statement, the analysis suggests that it is essential to build the survey around the balancing items (net) operative income and (net) comprehensive income. The analysis of the corporate balance sheets suggests that most accounting terms used by the public corporations can be grouped sensibly and linked to GFS classifications. With respect to the extrabudgetary units of central government, the mission proposed minor refinements of the survey and prepared preliminary GFS data.
August 13, 2019
Malaysia: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission
Description: This technical assistance report on Malaysia highlights that the mission aimed to support the Malaysian authorities in improving government finance statistics (GFS) for decision making. The mission reviewed the progress in the implementation of the accounting project to introduce accrual financial reporting standards at the federal government level. The mission identified considerable potential for collaboration between Ministry of Finance (MOF) and Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) with respect to fiscal data collection for other general government sublayers and public nonfinancial corporations. The mission concluded that the general ledger structure is sufficient to produce GFS on both cash and an accrual basis. The mission suggested that collaboration between MOF and DOSM going forward would be necessary to ensure data consistency and to facilitate the explanation of remaining minor differences to users. The mission recommends that the authorities verify the causes for inconsistencies based on recent annual data, and to formally align the collaboration between the institutions.
August 9, 2019
People’s Republic of China: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement and Statement by the Executive Director for China
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with People’s Republic of China highlights that after the slowdown in 2018, reflecting financial regulatory strengthening and softening external demand, growth stabilized in early 2019. Financial deleveraging and reduced interconnectedness between banks and non-banks have helped contain the build-up of financial risks, but vulnerabilities remain elevated and progress on rebalancing is mixed. While a moderate slowdown is expected in 2019, uncertainty around trade tensions remains high and risks are tilted to the downside. Successfully shifting from high-speed to high-quality growth in a highly uncertain environment requires stabilizing the economy amid rising trade tensions while continuing with deleveraging and strengthening rebalancing. It is important to improve external policies and frameworks by working constructively with trading partners to better address shortcomings and enable a trading system that can more readily adapt to economic changes in the international environment.
August 8, 2019
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People's Democratic Republic
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Lao People’s Democratic Republic (P.D.R) analyses that after more than a decade of high growth with low inflation, country is solidifying its progress toward graduating from the Least Developed Country (LDC) status. However, more than one-fifth of the population remains poor, regional disparities are persistent, and recurring natural disasters pose risks for poverty reduction. A large current account deficit, low level of reserves, a high level of debt, managed exchange rate, and a dollarized banking system amplify macro-vulnerabilities. The authorities recognize the current economic challenges and their comprehensive reform programs aim at rebalancing the economy from a resource based to a more diversified growth model by investing in human development and improving competitiveness. Modernizing monetary governance and building reserves supported by greater exchange rate flexibility will help to mitigate external shocks in an uncertain global environment.
August 7, 2019
Republic of Latvia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyses the implications of global value chains (GVC) participation for Latvia’s competitiveness and exposure to risks. Using a structural model, it assesses Latvia’s competitiveness through different real effective exchange rate (REER) measures and examines the main factors behind differences in the measures. Based on this analysis, the paper suggests policy options to strengthen Latvia’s competitiveness. The paper also estimates the impact of an appreciation of the GVC related REER measure on value added export growth and real GDP growth, and finds sizable effects, suggesting that a rapid labor market tightening could lead to erosion in competitiveness and reduction in growth. Finally, trade tension induced tariff hikes may have significant cost for Latvia, especially in terms of value added produced in the country. Trade tension induced tariff hikes are likely to have moderate costs for Latvia in terms of value added produced in the country. In this regard, policies aimed at enhancing product sophistication or quality and export market diversification could mitigate Latvia’s exposure to trade shocks in GVCs.
August 7, 2019
Republic of Latvia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Latvia highlights that the economy continued to expand rapidly in 2018, as growth surprised with a strong construction-driven upswing. Fiscal and current account deficits are at manageable levels, as is the public debt. The financial system remains stable, despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. The growth outlook is favourable; however, risks weigh on the downside due to a less supportive external environment. The financial system remains stable despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. Banks remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital levels about 40 percent higher than the euro area average and average liquidity coverage four times the regulatory minimum. Higher productivity and investment growth are needed to offset the impact of Latvia’s exceptionally unfavorable demographic trends and achieve robust long-term growth and rapid income convergence.