Country Reports
2019
September 4, 2019
Democratic Republic of the Congo: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) highlights that real gross domestic growth reached 5.8 percent in 2018, buoyed by stronger copper and cobalt prices and increased production. The main risks include an escalation of the Ebola epidemic; fiscal loosening leading to monetization of budget deficits; a relapse in copper and cobalt prices; an intensification of ongoing armed conflicts; and resistance to reform from vested interests. Transparency and accountability in the management of natural resources are major challenges facing DRC. It is recommended to step-up revenue mobilization, notably by simplifying taxes and integrating mining revenue into the central government Treasury. It is also important to enhance transparency, including through public tendering for the sale of mining assets, publication of audited financial statements of state-owned enterprises, and greater monitoring of public assets.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2002 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2002 Article IV Consultation with Maldives discusses that the performance of the Maldivian economy was strong through most of the past decade, despite handicaps arising from its small size and vulnerability to external developments. The devaluation and the weaker dollar have brought the effective real exchange rate closer to that of main competitors. Reserves have clawed back some of the losses in the aftermath of the devaluation. The 2002 Article IV discussions presented the opportunity to reassess progress toward restoring the soundness of macroeconomic and structural policies. In order to ensure a favorable medium-term performance for the Maldives, policies need to support the fixed exchange rate and adapt to ongoing structural changes—notably, the progressive liberalization of the financial sector, further private sector participation in activities still dominated by state-owned enterprises, and the likely tapering off of external assistance. The authorities have made some progress in responding to key policy challenges. Recent consultations have stressed the need for a stronger fiscal position and independent monetary management.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2005 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2005 Article IV Consultation with Maldives highlights that the Maldives suffered devastating damage from the December 2004 tsunami. Although human casualties were limited, damage to infrastructure has been extensive, with the cost of reconstruction estimated at nearly a half of gross domestic product. Reconstruction work has progressed slowly in 2005 but the pace is picking up. Recovery work has been slow due to insufficient coordination, problems in local consultation, and limited management capacity. The government and donors have been addressing these problems and the pace of implementation is finally accelerating. The 2006 budget is highly expansionary and threatens sustainability. The government has added to the fiscal deficit through new recruits, expansion of untargeted social programs, and a large domestically funded public investment program while using optimistic revenue projection. Fiscal reforms are of high priority. The report also explains that monetary policy should be geared to sustaining the peg arrangement based on indirect management. The objective of monetary policy should be to support the peg arrangement, which has served well as a credible nominal anchor.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2007 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2005 Article IV Consultation with Maldives discusses that Maldives has rebounded strongly from the tsunami of late 2004. Gross domestic product has grown rapidly, underpinned by a robust increase in tourist arrivals, and by construction activity pertaining to the development of new resorts. Inflation remains low although it is on a rising trend. The exchange rate peg continues to serve the country well. The main challenge for Maldives is to ensure that favorable growth prospects are not undermined by fiscal excesses and consequent macroeconomic instability. The IMF staff urged the authorities to prioritize expenditures in line with more realistic revenue estimates, so as to achieve the stated objective of zero domestic financing of the budget. There has been a recent increase in debt ratios due to construction of new resorts and the government’s ambitious infrastructure program. The new central bank act has separated the positions of finance minister and governor of the central bank and reorganized the governing body of the central bank. Going forward it will be important to entrench central bank independence.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2012 Article IV Consultation-Public Information Notice; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2012 Article IV Consultation with Maldives discusses that fiscal position is weak, and its external reserves are critically low. The country has a long history of fiscal and external imbalances. Macroeconomic policies need adjustment. The authorities have taken important steps in the 2013 budget to reduce the fiscal deficit, but further consolidation is needed, both to ensure debt sustainability and to strengthen the balance of payments. That latter goal would be aided by devaluation, combined with a restrictive incomes and subsidy policy, which would address the current overvaluation of the rufiyaa and help to curb imports. Monetary tightening would help to prevent the need for a further devaluation. Financial supervision, particularly with regard to the state bank, also needs strengthening. Given the track record, a Staff Monitored Program could be the appropriate starting point for any renewed engagement, however, in order to begin discussions, there would need to be a clear commitment on the authorities’ part to implementing a comprehensive set of policy adjustments.
September 3, 2019
Maldives: 2001 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: This 2001 Article IV Consultation with Maldives highlights that the economic challenges faced by Maldives are strongly influenced by geography and environment. The government’s overarching development strategy consists of creating new growth centers in the north and the south of the country and massive land reclamation in the vicinity of Male. Notwithstanding a slowdown in growth in 2000, Maldives’ economy has prospered with the rapid expansion of tourism and the modernization of the fisheries. At the conclusion of the last Article IV consultation on November 9, 2000, Executive Directors praised Maldives’ overall performance, however, warned of emerging imbalances. Fiscal slippage, compounded by adverse external developments, has been the main cause of recent imbalances in the Maldivian economy, manifested in rapid monetary expansion and sustained pressure on the exchange rate. The report shows that monetary developments have been dominated by central bank financing of fiscal deficits and excess demand for foreign exchange. The IMF staff team concluded that an adjustment of the exchange rate was not warranted until other options had been explored more fully.
August 30, 2019
Romania: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Romania
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Romania discusses that growth in 2019 is expected to stay above potential at 4 percent, led by continued fiscal stimulus and strong wage growth, and be accompanied by further widening of current account and fiscal deficits. The focus of discussions was on actions required to curb the widening imbalances and to re-orient the economy toward investment and sustainable income convergence. It is recommended that Romania take advantage of strong growth and start durable fiscal consolidation underpinned by high-quality measures to rein in the twin deficits and improve the macroeconomic policy mix. The more fiscal policy tightens, the less monetary tightening is needed. The report also advises to modernize revenue administration and improve expenditure efficiency. Reassessment of the new pension law to balance social needs and fiscal sustainability is also important. Rising vulnerability calls for a balanced macroeconomic policy mix built on durable fiscal consolidation. High-quality fiscal consolidation would reduce the burden on monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization, mitigate external pressure by containing the current account deterioration, and bolster growth potential by improving the balance between consumption and investment.
August 29, 2019
The Gambia: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
Description: This Technical Assistance Report on The Gambia highlights that the government has highlighted infrastructure development as a key element of National Development Plan, 2018–21. The report discusses that the need for increased public investment in the Gambia should be balanced against potential fiscal risks related to future Public–Private Partnerships and State-Owned Enterprise investments. Analysis of public investment patterns shows a fragmented picture, in which external financing dominates. Measures of the efficiency of infrastructure investments show mixed results and considerable room for improvement. The analysis explains that the Gambia’s performance across different Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) indicators is mixed and does not compare favorably with regional counterparts. Nevertheless, there are many indicators where the PIMA rating is poor. Prevailing weaknesses include the presence of many information gaps and non-transparent disclosure policies. The mission’s main recommendations focus on five priority areas and are designed to complement reforms that are already being undertaken.
August 23, 2019
People’s Republic of China: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on the drivers, implications and outlook for China’s shrinking current account surplus. Although cyclical factors helped in 2018, the trend decline has been largely structural, driven by rebalancing, appreciation of the real effective exchange rate toward equilibrium, increase in outbound tourism, and moderation in goods surplus reflecting market saturation and China’s faster growth compared with trading partners. Policies should focus on continued rebalancing and opening to ensure excessive surpluses do not return; and to prepare the economy and the financial system to handle more volatile capital flows. From a global perspective, the decline in China’s surplus has lowered global imbalances, with different impact across countries, with the trade balances of Korea, Germany, Brazil improving vis-à-vis China, while that of Japan, India, and Indonesia deteriorating. Further declines in the current account surplus will reduce excess global imbalances—a positive development for global stability.
August 23, 2019
Republic of Mozambique: Diagnostic Report on Transparency, Governance and Corruption
Description: This Diagnostic Report on Transparency, Governance and Corruption for the Republic of Mozambique highlights that the economy is at a turning point, and efforts to address governance and corruption vulnerabilities can have a lasting positive impact. The current levels of public debt have caused us to take a hard look at our governance and anticorruption framework and have prompted various reforms to address the vulnerabilities exposed in this framework. The governance and anticorruption framework is not consistently or comprehensively enforced. The rule of law is undermined by the insufficient implementation of existing legislation and regulations, including, in some cases through the absence of necessary regulations and explanatory guidelines. Civil society, the private sector, and the development partners in Mozambique also have critical roles to play. In addition, issues related to poor governance and corruption cannot be effectively addressed unless similar attention is paid to their transnational aspects, which need to be handled at a regional and global level, in multilateral and other international fora.