Country Reports
2019
October 17, 2019
Lebanon: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Lebanon highlights that Lebanon’s economic position continues to be very difficult, with very low growth, high public debt and large twin deficits. While financial stability has been maintained, deposit inflows, critical to finance the budget and external deficits, slowed down during the past year, reducing the authorities’ room for manoeuvre. The new government has taken some important policy steps to start the needed policy adjustment, which could help raise confidence among investors and donors. The highest priority is the implementation of a sustainable fiscal adjustment that will bend down the path of the public debt-to-gross domestic product ratio through a combination of revenue and expenditure measures. This needs to be complemented by structural reforms and concessionally financed investment to raise Lebanon’s growth potential and help external adjustment, as well as policies to build further buffers in Lebanon’s financial sector. Structural reforms should prioritize reforming the electricity sector, removing impediments to and lowering the cost of doing business, as well as improving governance and reducing corruption.
October 17, 2019
Lebanon: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper studies the inefficiencies related to the electricity sector and assesses the potential impact of the 2019 reform plan. Electricity shortages are the second constraint to competitiveness reported by businesses in Lebanon, based on the Enterprise Survey conducted by the World Bank. Lebanon’s electricity sector performance is worse than other similar countries in the region. Many businesses must rely on costly private generators. Income inequalities are exacerbated by both the geographical disparities in Electricité du Liban’s (EdL) electricity provision and its tariff structure. The most vulnerable households are the small consumers located in regions with little electricity provision from EdL. A new electricity plan was approved by Cabinet on April 9, 2019 and ratified by Parliament on April 17, 2019. Although it is critical that the plan is decisively implemented, it is also important that it is enhanced further to fully restore EdL’s viability. Introducing well-targeted measures, such as cash transfers, would help protect the most vulnerable households from the tariff increase. As planned in the reform package, consumer tariffs should be indexed on the evolution of input prices to guarantee that it will not be negatively impacted by future developments in fuel or gas prices.
October 10, 2019
Brunei Darussalam: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Brunei’s economy has been adjusting to declining oil production since 2010 and lower oil and gas (O&G) prices since 2014, with the authorities undertaking wide-ranging reforms. Growth is expected to pick up in 2019 to 1.8 percent, with the outlook improving further over the medium term, driven by stronger O&G activities from asset rejuvenation and large foreign direct investment projects. The authorities have made substantial progress in fiscal consolidation, improving the business climate, and developing the financial sector. The fiscal consolidation initiatives include corporatization and privatization, public-private partnership, evaluation of subsidies against targets, fiscal management enhancement, revenue diversification, and amalgamation of the government’s asset management system. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ initiatives to develop the financial sector, while safeguarding financial stability and integrity. The initiatives include steps to broaden the investor base, establish a secondary bond market, develop the required infrastructure and rules for establishing a stock exchange, and put all the three pillars of Basel II in place.
October 10, 2019
Arab Republic of Egypt: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Arab Republic of Egypt
Description: This paper discusses Arab Republic of Egypt’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Macroeconomic performance has remained strong in 2018/19, supported by continued sound policy implementation. The report highlights that monetary policy remains anchored by the medium-term objective of bringing inflation to single digits. Core inflation appears to be well contained, however the central bank should remain cautious until disinflation is firmly entrenched. Exchange rate flexibility remains essential to improve resilience to shocks and preserve competitiveness. The outlook remains favorable and provides an opportune juncture to further advance structural reforms to support more inclusive private-sector led growth and job creation. The authorities have launched important reforms of competition policy, public procurement, industrial land allocation, and state-owned enterprises, and sustained implementation will be essential to ensure that statutory changes achieve meaningful results in the business climate. Sustained efforts are needed to advance reforms in competition, industrial land allocation, and governance of state-owned enterprises.
October 7, 2019
Thailand: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses Thailand’s robust policy framework and ample buffers continue to underpin its resilience to external headwinds. The authorities have taken measures to strengthen medium-term fiscal management and financial stability. With respect to the outlook, growth is projected to slow down to about 3 percent in 2019–20 reflecting external and domestic headwinds. On the external side, the projected slowdown in global demand and uncertainty about trade tensions are expected to weigh on exports throughout 2019. Policies should aim at boosting growth, while promoting domestic and external rebalancing and making growth more inclusive. The IMF staff recommends a front-loaded fiscal impulse in FY 2020. Thailand should use available fiscal space judiciously to spur domestic demand and support potential output. Implementation of macro-critical public infrastructure projects would also crowd in private investment. The report also highlights that structural reforms aimed at improving the implementation of public investment, strengthen social safety nets, and raise productivity in an increasingly digital economy, would boost growth and enhance its inclusiveness.
October 7, 2019
Thailand: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Thailand highlights that assets of the insurance and mutual fund sectors have doubled as a share of gross domestic product over the last decade, and capital markets are largely on par with regional peers. The report discusses significant slowdown in China and advanced economies, a sharp rise in risk premia, and entrenched low inflation would adversely impact the financial system. Stress tests results suggest that the banking sector is resilient to severe shocks and that systemic and contagion risks stemming from interlinkages are limited. Financial system oversight is generally strong, but the operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further. The operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further by reducing the involvement of the Ministry of Finance in prudential issues and ensuring that each agency has full control over decisions that lie within its areas of responsibility.
October 3, 2019
Albania: Technical Assistance Report–Monetary and Financial Statistics and Financial Accounts Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance report on Albania focuses on: compiling and disseminating flow-based monetary and financial statistics (MFS) for the central bank, other depository corporations (ODCs), and other financial corporations (OFCs); compiling and disseminating quarterly financial accounts by institutional sectors; and developing a from-whom/to-whom matrix for financial instruments. The mission reviewed the quality of Albania’s flow-based MFS, sectoral financial accounts and balance sheets, and provided technical guidance to improve their quality. The Monetary Policy Committee has requested flow-based monetary statistics as an additional vehicle to understand money and credit developments in the Albanian economy. Similarly, financial accounts by sector and financial balance sheets are considered increasingly important for analysis of financial stability and other macroeconomic developments. The mission also recommended that the BOA begins compiling quarterly sectoral financial accounts and balance sheets by mid-2021 starting with data from the first quarter of 2017.
October 1, 2019
Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance report on Georgia highlights the external sector statistics (ESS). The main objectives of the mission were to assess the Geostat’s progress in the area of ESS and provide further recommendations on improving the data collection and compilation for producing the financial account components, including direct investment statistics, in an integrated format. With the mission’s assistance and based on the analysis’ results, a method has been agreed for filling the gaps in coverage of imported cars and for addressing the limitations in valuation of re-exported cars. The mission stressed the need for improving the coverage of transactions related to gambling that have shown a growing trend in recent years, with increasing nonresidents’ activities. With the increasing workload due to the compilation and dissemination of new products or to enhancing the coverage and quality of existing products, and bearing in mind the staff turnover, there is need to consider allocating additional staff to the External Trade and Foreign Investments Statistics Department. In order to support progress, the mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan, with priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving Georgia’s ESS.
September 25, 2019
Republic of Moldova: Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Completion of the Inflation Consultation, and Request for Extension of the Arrangements and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
Description: This paper discusses Republic of Moldova’s Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Completion of the Inflation Consultation, and Request for Extension of the Arrangements and Rephasing of Access. The Moldovan authorities have taken decisive corrective measures to bring the Fund supported program back on track and to achieve its objectives of ensuring macroeconomic stability and advancing reforms. Going forward, it is critical that the authorities continue to pursue prudent policies and structural reforms aimed at strengthening the financial sector, maintaining fiscal sustainability, and creating space for social and infrastructure spending. Policies remain focused on cleansing the financial sector, ensuring growth friendly fiscal policy, and enhancing transparency in the energy sector. The authorities are committed to completing the rehabilitation of the banking system, addressing vulnerabilities in the non-bank sector, promoting predictable energy tariff setting, and maintaining fiscal sustainability to preserve space for social and infrastructure spending.
September 24, 2019
Brazil: Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening the Framework for Subnational Borrowing
Description: This Technical Assistance report on Brazil highlights strengthening the framework for substantial borrowing. A significant change in the institutional framework is needed to impose hard budget constraints and promote stable and sustainable policies. The approach proposed in this report is based on demanding greater transparency and accountability by subnational governments, while also making the framework more flexible. If adopted, the framework is expected to introduce risk sharing among states, within an enhanced insolvency framework, and tighten fiscal rules. The proposed changes would also put more emphasis in market incentives. The changes in the framework will also need to be accompanied by progress in addressing fiscal pressures from rising budget rigidities (including pensions) and excessive tax incentives (the so-called tax wars). It is recommended to create an independent fiscal council that monitors fiscal performance and compliance of fiscal rules by subnational governments. One possibility is to add this mandate to the Independent Fiscal Institution, while strengthening its independence and provide enough resources.