Country Reports
2019
November 18, 2019
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report-Reforming Energy Pricing
Description: This paper on Colombia focuses on reforming energy pricing. Rising fiscal challenges in Colombia can risk derailing the government from their commitment to meet both its headline deficit target of 2.4 percent in 2019 and its structural deficit target by 2022, under the existing fiscal rule. The government is committed to embark on a reform strategy that aims at safeguarding the fiscal framework. Energy subsidy reform is one element of the government’s strategy to address fiscal pressures. Carefully designed reforms entail a gradual phasing out of subsidies in the case of fuel products and, in the case of electricity, an improvement in the targeting over the medium term. Illustrative simulations presented in this report highlight the fiscal and distributional impacts of different reform options. Simulations show that net fiscal gains could be achieved both for electricity and fuel products, while reducing distortions. The mission identified reform options to reduce energy subsidies while at the same time improve their targeting. The approach differs across sectors.
November 15, 2019
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Budget Framework and Fiscal Risk Statement
Description: This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine discusses medium-term budget framework (MTBF) and fiscal risk statement. In order to strengthen the medium-term orientation of the budget, the authorities have committed to implement a full-fledged MTBF as part of their Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21). The ability of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to enforce compliance with ceilings during the annual budget will be critical to the success of the pilot exercise. The MoF will need to develop a robust report explaining the ceilings for cabinet discussion and for presentation to the legislature. The authorities have been taking steps to improve their understanding and disclosure of fiscal risks and have made significant progress with the inclusion of a summary fiscal risk statement in the draft Budget Declaration. The institutional structures to support fiscal risk analyses and disclosure are also yet to be established.
November 15, 2019
Mexico: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
Description: This Technical Assistance report on Mexico discusses public investment management assessment (PIMA). It evaluates 15 key institutions in terms of their institutional strength and effectiveness across the planning, allocation, and implementation phases of the PIM cycle, identifies strengths and weaknesses in the existing PIM framework, and produces an action plan to improve PIM. This assessment found that most of Mexico’s institutions scored as medium strength in terms of institutional design and effectiveness. It is recommended to include a medium-term target for the public sector borrowing requirement, introduce an independent body to review and assess the quality of the macro-fiscal projections, and amend the fiscal rule’s escape clause so it is only used in exceptional circumstances. In addition, expand the economic assumptions report to include more information on fiscal strategy and analyses of medium-term fiscal parameters. It is also recommended to develop mechanisms for coordination of public investment plans at federal and subnational levels to enhance efficiency and synergies of planning and investment prioritization.
November 15, 2019
Greece: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Greece discusses that public debt is projected to trend down over the next decade, though long-term sustainability is not assured under realistic macro-fiscal assumptions. Still-weak bank balance sheets act as a drag on growth prospects and pose significant fiscal and financial stability risks. These and other factors leave Greece vulnerable to a range of external and domestic shocks. Greece’s prospects for improved living standards and economic convergence within the Euro Area (EA) depend on implementing a critical mass of inter-related fiscal, financial, and structural policy reforms. In order to achieve better growth and social outcomes, the fiscal policy mix should be improved, with more emphasis on investment and targeted social spending and lower direct taxes, backed by reforms in revenue administration and public financial management. Greece’s success within the currency union critically hinges on narrowing its structural competitiveness gap. Policies should focus on productivity enhancement through improved labor market flexibility, more effective labor activation policies, stronger institutions, and business deregulation.
November 15, 2019
Greece: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper explores the links between wage policies, non-wage cost developments, and competitiveness. A series of program-era policies helped to partially reverse this trend, including labor market policies that cushioned the effect of the crisis on employment and brought unit labor costs broadly in line with trading partners. However, the resulting more competitive wage structure only partly translated into price adjustments due to product market rigidities (with firms retaining some profit margin) and rising non-wage cost factors (e.g., taxes and financing costs). This incomplete internal devaluation and subsequent low productivity gains reinforce the view that Greece has further to go to address its external imbalances. However, labor policy reversals following program exit in August 2018 threaten this objective. The paper shows that Greece must preserve its labor cost competitiveness while increasing efforts to facilitate price adjustment in product markets and reduce non-wage costs.
November 7, 2019
Jamaica: Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Direct for Jamaica
Description: This paper discusses Jamaica’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). All quantitative performance criteria, indicative targets, and the structural benchmark at end-June were met, marking a successful completion of the SBA. Discussions centered on policies to lock-in macroeconomic stability and advance supply-side reforms to promote inclusive growth, including: building institutions and advancing fiscal reforms to safeguard and sustain economic stability and debt reduction; improving monetary operations and policy transmission; and bolstering financial inclusion, access to credit, and formality. Most structural policy commitments are on track, although some key reforms to public sector transformation, the compensation framework for public employees, legislation to establish a fiscal council, and creating a special resolution regime for financial institutions have been delayed due to capacity constraints and the need to build stakeholder support for these reforms. Important gains have been made in the oversight of financial institutions.
November 5, 2019
Mexico: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Mexico discusses that growth is expected to accelerate modestly in the near-term, reaching 0.4 percent in 2019, as macroeconomic policies become less contractionary. Monetary policy has started easing in the context of a widening negative output gap and declining inflation. The administration’s solid mandate presents an opportunity to address Mexico’s longstanding structural challenges while maintaining very strong policies and policy frameworks. Staff highlighted the need to specify credible measures to reach the announced fiscal targets while adopting a more growth-friendly and inclusive policy mix. Increasing non-oil tax revenues, paired with improving the efficiency of spending, will be an imperative in this regard. The authorities have initiated a package of reforms to strengthen financial deepening and inclusion.
November 5, 2019
Mexico: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper shows that upgrading basic public infrastructure, and road infrastructure, raises productivity among firms, not only for large companies but also for Mexico’s large number of small and micro firms. This finding suggests that greater government spending on road infrastructure will support efforts to raise productivity and growth over the medium term. Mexico’s infrastructure quality has been on a steady decline. World Economic Forum indicators of perceived infrastructure quality show Mexico broadly in line with—or even outperforming—its emerging market and regional peers. Infrastructure quality and access are likely to weaken further at current investment rates. Spending trends compare particularly poorly to investment needs in the case of roads investment. According to the Global Competitiveness Index, the perceived quality of Mexico’s transportation infrastructure is broadly in line with peers. The note provides evidence of the role of infrastructure investment in boosting productivity.
November 4, 2019
Kingdom of Lesotho: Technical Assistance Report—Government Finance Statistics Mission (January 14–25, 2019)
Description: This paper on government finance statistics (GFS) mission in Lesotho presents a review of progress against recommendations of previous GFS technical assistance (TA) missions and further assist with improving the quality of GFS currently compiled and disseminated. The mission reviewed progress with implementation of previous GFS TA recommendations and updated the public sector institutional table. The mission reviewed the new compilation methods and noted some improvements with the approach. Accounts payable are now recorded under financing, to bridge the timing difference of commitment basis expenditure. The report explains that the legal and institutional environment is conducive to compiling macroeconomic and financial statistics; the relevance and practical utility of existing macroeconomic and financial statistics are monitored; management processes are in place to monitor the quality of macroeconomic and financial statistics; and institutional integrity, transparency, and ethical practices meet statistical standards. There is still a need to correct recording to distinguish expense from acquisition of financial assets.
November 4, 2019
Sri Lanka: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sri Lanka
Description: This paper discusses Sri Lanka’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance and Modification of Performance Criterion. The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering from the impact of the Easter Sunday terrorist attacks. Growth is projected to strengthen to 3.5 percent in 2020, from 2.7 percent in 2019, as tourist arrivals and related activities gradually recover. Sustaining fiscal policy discipline remains critical to strengthen resilience and support growth, as important downside risks remain, amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty. The Sri Lankan economy is gradually recovering, supported by the authorities’ security and policy efforts to mitigate the impact of the attacks. Nevertheless, the economy remains vulnerable to shocks, given high public debt and low external buffers, with higher downside risks since the attacks, amid heightened external and domestic uncertainty. Sustained policy discipline and efforts to rebuild reserve buffers remain critical to address Sri Lanka’s vulnerabilities and strengthen the economy’s resilience, while supporting investment and growth.