Country Reports
2024
December 16, 2024
Seychelles: Third Reviews Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility and Request for Rephasing of Access Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Seychelles
Description: Economic growth in Seychelles appears to have slowed relative to earlier forecasts. Real GDP growth is projected at 3 percent in 2024 compared to an earlier projection of 3.7 percent. This reflects lower tourist arrivals in the wake of a temporary reduction in the number of direct flights and a decline in average spending per tourist. Some recovery is expected in the last quarter of 2024, but such a rebound is not expected to offset the shortfall recorded during the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Year-on-year inflation was about 0.6 percent as of September, reflecting stable utility rates and stable or declining prices for fuel and other commodities. Fiscal performance in the first half of 2024 was tighter than budgeted, driven by robust tax collection. Despite the slowdown in tourism, the external balance of payments is expected to strengthen in 2024 as the larger current account deficit is more than compensated for by larger financial inflows.
December 13, 2024
Benin: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Fourth Review under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and the First Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for Modification of a Quantitative Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin
Description: Benin’s strong reform drive and sound macroeconomic management over the past several years have provided policy space to bolster resilience to repeated shocks. The authorities started rebuilding policy buffers last year and recently regained access to the international capital market after a two-year hiatus. Budget support has consistently exceeded expectations. While the country’s reform program—supported by the ECF (2017–20) and the ongoing EFF/ECF (2022–25)—has generated tangible macroeconomic dividends and improved aggregate social outcomes, large disparities have persisted across regions and income groups. A key challenge ahead is how to leverage the initial government’s impetus to pursue the transition to private sector-led growth that benefits all Beninese.
December 12, 2024
Republic of Serbia: Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Cancellation of the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for a 36 Month Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
Description: On December 9, 2024 the IMF’s Board approved the Republic of Serbia’s fourth, and final, review under the 2-year Stand By Arrangement (SBA) 2022-24, and a request for a successor 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Under the SBA, the authorities pursued ambitious reforms, helping deliver strong macroeconomic outcomes and Serbia’s first ever investment grade rating. With attention shifting to ambitious public investments under the umbrella of the Leap into the Future—Serbia Expo 2027 plan, the PCI will help the authorities to demonstrate continued commitment to sound policies, sustain reform momentum, and anchor fiscal discipline.
December 12, 2024
Chad: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses Chad’s post-pandemic recovery picked up steam in 2023 with growth increasing to 4.9 percent. Economic growth is projected to decline to 3.1 percent in 2024 on account of the impact of the recent floods and a slight decline in oil production but would rebound in the medium term owing to sustained public investment and structural reforms. Risks to the outlook are substantial and tilted to the downside and include potential delays in implementing fiscal consolidation measures, a larger-than-expected decline in oil prices, an increase in the influx of Sudanese refugees, and a further increase in the frequency and severity of climate change-related events. Restructuring plans aimed at improving the operational and financial performance of the two systemic public banks while providing for their recapitalization need to be adopted and implemented expeditiously. Strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, together with measures to improve education, increase access to basic infrastructure, and promote formalization and financial inclusion, will be essential to create a favorable business environment.
December 10, 2024
Ghana: Third Review Under the Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
Description: Policy adjustment and reforms are delivering on their objectives, with signs of stabilization crystallizing. Further headways have been made on the debt restructuring. With the December 2024 general elections approaching and considering past episodes of election-driven policy slippages, the authorities have reiterated their strong commitment to the policies and reforms under the program. They are seeking to address the implications of a dry spell in the North and a deepening of the energy sector challenges within the program targets.
December 10, 2024
Honduras: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of Purchases-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Honduras
Description: The Executive Board approved 36-month, US$822 million arrangements under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Honduras in September 2023. The IMF-supported program aims to strengthen macroeconomic stability, create fiscal space for productive investment and social spending, and improve governance and transparency. The economy remains resilient, despite external and climate shocks and long-standing impediments to growth. Early estimates suggest that the macroeconomic impact of Tropical Storm Sara, which recently hit Honduras, is expected to be small. Achieving internal consensus on the needed recalibration of monetary and exchange rate policies to bolster external stability has been protracted, partly amid concerns over the potential social impact, and delayed the completion of reviews under the program. The authorities remain firm in their commitment to achieve program goals and have begun implementing decisive measures to bolster external stability and restore the financial health of the energy sector.
December 10, 2024
Haiti: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Haiti
Description: Haiti is facing exceptional challenges. While security has deteriorated steadily since the last 2019 Article IV Consultation, it reached crisis proportions in the first few months of 2024. Gangs controlled 80 percent of the capital during March-May 2024, paralyzing economic activity by disrupting supply chains, destroying much infrastructure, and rekindling inflation pressures. The escalation of violence has destroyed human and physical capital and led to a surge in the number of displaced people and greatly accelerated brain drain. The worsened security situation has amplified Haiti’s fragility, compounding its multiple shocks, including the pandemic, a devastating earthquake, political crisis following the assassination of President Moïse, worsening malnutrition resulting from the economic spillovers of Russia’s war in Ukraine which led to the food crisis, and repeated outbreaks of infectious diseases. The economy is only very slowly normalizing. The first wave of the contingent of the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS)—led by Kenya backed by the United Nations—arrived in Haiti at the end of June to help re-establish security. The new government, in place since June 2024 with a time-bound mandate through February 2026 (tasked with holding general elections), has a window of opportunity to implement reforms that could eventually help restore the country’s potential over the medium and long term.
December 10, 2024
Republic of San Marino: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: San Marino has shifted to a new growth model during the last decade. As the once oversized banking sector embarked on a painful deleveraging process following the Great Financial Crisis, manufacturing and nonfinancial service exporting sectors grew, underpinned by cost-competitiveness in labor and strong balance sheets. Prudent fiscal policy and access to international capital markets helped weather the pandemic and energy crises. However, San Marino is a small state subject to very high volatility and the financial sector remains vulnerable, suggesting that larger-than-usual fiscal buffers are needed.