Country Reports
2024
July 15, 2024
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Issues
Description: This paper analyzes domestic revenue mobilization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and offers options to strengthen it. Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) in the DRC has improved during the Extended Credit Facility ECF program, standing at 13.7 percent over gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, though it remains persistently low relative to peer countries. The recent improvements in revenue mobilization have been driven by stronger corporate income taxation (particularly stemming from the extractive sector). A comparison between DRC’s and peer countries’ tax structure points to significant room for boosting domestic revenues with stronger mobilization of personal income taxes, taxes on international trade and transactions and goods and services. In addition, the country’s tax potential (estimated on the basis of its structural characteristics and a stochastic frontier model) points to significant scope for improving tax-to-GDP ratio, by about 10 percentage points under more efficient tax policy and tax collection. Finally, tax administration reforms based on recommendations from the recently published the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool report can significantly contribute to boosting DRM, with particular focus on tax-avoidance in the mining sector.
July 15, 2024
Iceland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Iceland highlights that following an impressive recovery from shocks in recent years, tight monetary and fiscal policies have slowed domestic demand growth, strengthened the current account, and started to lower inflationary pressures. A coordinated tightening of macroeconomic policies has successfully narrowed domestic and external imbalances built up during the post-pandemic period. Appropriately tight macroeconomic policies are expected to dampen economic growth in the near term, while medium-term growth prospects are favorable. Reactivation of the fiscal rules in 2026 presents an opportunity to revisit their design to ensure fiscal policy is both sustainable and contributes to macroeconomic stability. An application of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework to Iceland suggests some benefits of foreign exchange interventions during times of stress. Structural policies should focus on gradually reducing state involvement in collective wage bargaining, accelerating the green transition, and further diversifying the economy.
July 15, 2024
Nepal: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
Description: This paper focuses on Nepal’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Nepal has made good progress with implementation of the program, despite a challenging political environment. With growth below potential, executing the planned increase in capital spending, as envisaged in the FY24/25 budget, while maintaining fiscal discipline through domestic revenue mobilization and rationalization of current spending remains critical to boost growth and preserve medium-term fiscal sustainability. Monetary policy should maintain the current cautious, data-driven approach to preserving price and external stability. Avoiding further boom-bust credit cycles is critical to establish a more stable, pro-growth equilibrium. Continued progress on the structural front remains needed to foster investment and more inclusive growth. These include improving the business climate, building human capital, and continuing to improve social safety nets, in particular aiming for full execution of the child grant budget, followed by an expansion of the program to all districts in Nepal.
July 15, 2024
Iceland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents a pilot study on integrated policy framework (IPF) in Iceland. The IPF helps assess the appropriate policy responses to shocks for economies vulnerable to capital flow volatility, allowing for some market frictions. Iceland is an advanced economy pilot under the IPF with some of the frictions identified under the IPF framework. The Central Bank of Iceland implements an inflation targeting regime with the possibility of currency intervention within its mandate. The foreign exchange (FX) market in Iceland is assessed to be shallower than in other advanced economies, especially around episodes of global economic and financial stress. Foreign currency assets are mainly due to portfolio allocation of the large pension sector. The authorities should explore options to deepen the foreign currency derivatives market in a manner consistent with continued foreign exchange market stability. Iceland has a history of disruptive speculative foreign currency trading, which points to the need for moving cautiously with reforms to deepening the FX derivatives market. Reforms that could be explored include reassessing the limits on commercial banks’ derivative transactions. This would encourage greater participation of foreign investors in the domestic bond market and facilitate hedging of FX risk, thereby reducing the likelihood of disruptive exchange rate movements.
July 12, 2024
France: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper aims to deep dive on the climate transition for France. The paper discusses macroeconomic implications, fiscal policies, and financial risks. France has taken a leadership role in global mitigation initiatives. French banks should also continue to mitigate climate transition risks by integrating them into their governance, strategy, and risk management processes. Revenue could be recycled through targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households and reductions in labor and/or corporate income taxes. Sectoral policies can usefully complement carbon pricing while helping balancing fiscal, economic, equity, and acceptability objectives. Transitioning to distance-based charges can help close emissions gaps, reach the sectoral carbon budget, and maintain revenue. The transition toward a low-carbon economy and the structural changes associated with it can pose important economic and financial challenges, if not well-managed and timed. A growing number of central banks and global institutions increasingly acknowledge the financial stability implications of climate transition risk.
July 12, 2024
Republic of Mozambique: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses current situation and policy options related to state-owned enterprises (SOE) in Mozambique. SOEs play an important role in the Mozambican economy providing much-needed utilities, and also regarding employment and investment dynamics. A first step is to enhance timely and regular collection of data that is easily accessible to better assess the performance of SOEs and raise awareness about associated fiscal costs and risks. Enhancing governance and transparency in the SOE sector remains essential to strengthen performance, oversight and accountability, aimed at containing the associated costs and risks. Besides the consolidated accounts, there is a need for action to regularly publish granular data on SOEs to improve transparency and accessibility. It is also important to improve transparency in the SOEs’ procurement processes to address vulnerabilities to corruption and improve public spending efficiency. Undertaking a comprehensive analysis of the SOE sector is important to set a holistic strategy for prioritizing and sequencing needed reforms going forward.
July 12, 2024
France: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for France
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with France discusses that strong and timely policy response helped cushion the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the energy crisis resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite a recovery slowdown in 2023, the French economy has remained relatively resilient in the face of financial tightening and weaker euro area external demand. Nevertheless, the crisis response and slower-than-expected recovery have weighed on public finances, with a sizable fiscal underperformance in 2023 reducing fiscal space at a time of rising investment needs for the green and digital transformation. While financial conditions started improving in early 2024, market pressures on sovereign spreads and stock markets rose in early June following the European elections amid political uncertainty. Growth is projected to gradually reach 1.3 percent by 2025 from 0.9 percent in 2024. The disinflationary process is on track, with headline inflation expected to reach 2.3 percent in 2024 and return to target in the first half of 2025. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty. Heightened political fragmentation and policy uncertainty domestically could delay fiscal consolidation and reform efforts, weighing on confidence and public finances. The French authorities should continue to advance structural reforms to support jobs and raise productivity, amid ongoing geopolitical and economic transitions.
July 12, 2024
Republic of Mozambique: 2024 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modifications of Quantitative Performance Criteria, Waiver of Nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Mozambique
Description: This paper highlights Republic of Mozambique’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Fourth Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modifications of Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC), Waiver of Nonobservance of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic growth is positive but expected to moderate, with tight financial conditions acting as a drag on activity. While inflation pressures have declined, Mozambique faces significant risks, mainly from adverse climate events and the fragile security situation. The authorities’ efforts to ensure fiscal discipline are welcome. Further fiscal consolidation is needed, given Mozambique’s high debt and tight financing conditions. A tight monetary policy stance has helped to contain inflationary pressures and rebuild foreign exchange reserves. With the weak outlook for nonmining growth, well-anchored inflation expectations, and continued fiscal consolidation, a gradual easing of the monetary policy stance is appropriate. Continued capacity development, including in the operation of the Sovereign Wealth Fund, remains essential for strengthening institutional capacity and allowing Mozambique to achieve its development objectives. Measures to build resilience to climate change and accelerate progress on addressing gender-based disparities are also crucial.
July 12, 2024
The Gambia: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia
Description: This paper presents The Gambia’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Modification of a Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review. Economic activity continued to recover robustly. Inflation eased but remains well above the central bank’s medium-term objective. Following the adoption of a new foreign exchange policy, the wedge between the official and parallel market exchange rates has largely closed. Structural reforms are advancing. The economic outlook is subject to large downside risks, particularly owing to global geopolitical tensions. Performance under program has been satisfactory. Continued implementation of the reforms will help address medium- and long-term macroeconomic challenges and catalyze additional financing from development partners and the private sector. The central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance to ensure that inflation firmly declines. It will also continue close implementation of the recently introduced foreign exchange policy to prevent reoccurrence of forex shortages and any wedge with the parallel market. Finally, structural reforms will be pursued and accelerated, particularly on revenue administration, public financial management, state-owned enterprises management, governance, and business environment.
July 11, 2024
Uruguay: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that in 2023, Uruguay confronted the impact of a once-in-a-century severe drought and external headwinds, but the economy remained resilient, owing to the authorities’ sound macroeconomic policies, the country’s political stability, and strong institutions. While economic growth decelerated in 2023, employment rose, and inflation fell within the target range. As inflationary pressures cooled off, the Banco Central del Uruguay started lowering its monetary policy rate in April 2023, while maintaining a contractionary stance. The economy is expected to strongly rebound in 2024, underpinned by the recovery of agricultural exports, increased cellulose production, easing of financial conditions and robust private consumption. Main risks are broadly balanced. Overall fiscal and external risks are low. The post-drought growth momentum creates opportunities for reinvigorating fiscal consolidation efforts. The crafting of the next five-year budget law opens an opportunity to recalibrate the fiscal rule targets to place debt on a downward path. Refinements to the fiscal rule would help consolidate recent credibility gains. Monetary policy should remain contractionary to ensure that inflation and inflation expectations stay within the target range in a sustained manner. Structural reforms are key to unlock potential growth, create policy space to preserve the country’s safety net and social cohesion, and support favorable sovereign debt ratings.