Peru: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification and Waiver of Performance Criteria
IMF Staff Country Reports, March 14, 2003
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- Peru: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification and Waiver of Performance Criteria
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Bibliographic details
- Published: March 14, 2003
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451830989.002
Executive summary and principal findings
- The paper examines Peru’s 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and a Request for Modification and Waiver of Performance Criteria.
- Fiscal policy was tightened in early 2002 after an expansionary stance in the second half of 2001.
- The baseline medium-term outlook is favorable, albeit not without risks.
- Assuming sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms continue, Peru should be able to achieve medium-term growth of 5 percent.
- The domestic political situation contains clear risks that could hold up tax reform and undermine fiscal discipline.
Fiscal policy developments
- Policy stance: tightened in early 2002 following an expansionary stance in the second half of 2001.
- Policy risk: political obstacles could delay tax reform and weaken fiscal discipline.
Medium-term outlook and risks
- Baseline projection: medium-term growth of 5 percent contingent on continued sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms.
- Key downside risk: domestic political instability affecting reform implementation and fiscal consolidation.
Thematic coverage (subjects and keywords)
- Subjects: Banking, Central banks, Economic sectors, External debt, International reserves, National accounts, Private investment, Public debt, Public sector.
- Keywords: CR, economy, financing plan, Global, government, inflation targeting framework, International reserves, ISCR, Private investment, Public sector, review of Peru, staff appraisal, stand-by agreement.
Peru: Staff Report for the 2002 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification and Waiver of Performance Criteria (IMF Staff Country Report).