Country Reports
2024
May 15, 2024
St. Kitts and Nevis: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on St. Kitts and Nevis studies economic benefits from energy transition. Cheaper and more stable energy prices can support macroeconomic stability. In addition to the aforementioned effects, low and stable energy prices can mitigate the adverse impact from terms-of-trade shocks and reduce inflation volatility, thus contributing to smoothing out economic cycles. The energy landscape of St. Kitts and Nevis calls for energy reform. The two islands of St. Kitts and Nevis rely heavily on fossil fuels, primarily diesel, to power their grids without Interconnection. The analysis uses cross-country examples to examine the channels through which the adoption of renewable energy on a large scale can yield numerous long-term economic benefits. Transitioning to domestic renewable energy sources could stabilize domestic energy prices and reduce the volatility of inflation. A sharp reduction in energy costs in St. Kitts and Nevis could promote sectoral diversification. High-energy costs can prohibit economic diversification, particularly into energy intensive industries.
May 15, 2024
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with St. Kitts and Nevis discusses that despite a continued strong tourism performance, growth fell to 3.4 percent in 2023 due to delays in public and private sector investment projects. The economic outlook is positive thanks to the renewable energy projects that would significantly reshape the economy. A privately funded utility-scale solar and battery storage project is expected to be completed in 2025 and a geothermal project in Nevis is at the planning stage. Debt and cash management could be improved and the social security fund requires urgent reform. Maintaining a large amount of short-term debt can be costly, particularly when fiscal buffers are available. The 2023 external position is assessed to be weaker than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies. The current account deficit is projected to fall to over the medium term supported by lower fossil fuel imports. International reserves are adequate.
May 15, 2024
Belize: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Belize highlights that real gross domestic product growth and inflation moderated in 2023. Belize’s key policy priorities include raising the primary balance with revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization to lower public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, adopting growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change and related disasters. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting medium-term growth requires increasing female labor force participation, enhancing access to affordable credit for small and medium size enterprises, reducing crime, improving the business climate, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Keeping vulnerable financial institutions under enhanced supervision and requesting recapitalization when needed is important to maintain financial stability. Strengthening the currency peg requires increasing international reserves by reducing public debt, implementing structural reforms and limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
May 14, 2024
New Zealand: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates why New Zealand’s inflation is higher and further from target than comparator economies considering two main hypotheses: (1) the persistence of pandemic era shocks, and (2) strong migration inflows fuelling demand. The paper finds that, like in many advanced economies, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, high global commodity prices, exchange rates, and high maritime transport costs all fed into higher inflation. However, unique for New Zealand, the delayed reopening of the economy likely caused a postponed demand shock relative to similar economies. Results show that the impact of these shocks decay rapidly over time, suggesting positive short-term inflation dynamics. With an eye for what lies ahead, the paper finds that large migration waves are associated with short-run increases in inflation, but that these effects are relatively modest and no longer significant after four years. Instead, the long-run dynamics show evidence that migration can lead to significant long-term gains to productivity, output, and capital growth. Countries with tight labor markets exhibit similar patterns to those without, except the inflationary effects of migration dissipate faster.
May 14, 2024
New Zealand: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The New Zealand economy slowed considerably in 2023, following a period of strong growth, and some previous significant imbalances are finally correcting. Tight monetary policy has put inflation on a meaningful downward path but remains high. Some of the overvaluation in housing prices has also reversed. The external balance is slowly improving, though the current account deficit is still large. An ambitious agenda of broad-based reforms is underway by the new coalition government.
May 14, 2024
Republic of Slovenia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Slovenia
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Slovenia’s economy recovered well from the pandemic, only to be hit by spillovers from the war in Ukraine, followed by severe flooding in 2023. After a strong recovery in 2021, growth slowed in 2022 because of adverse energy price spillovers from the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. Growth is expected to accelerate, driven by a recovery in domestic demand. Inflation is projected to continue to decline. The outlook remains subject to high uncertainty, with risks stemming from an intensification of regional conflicts, renewed commodity price volatility, and lower trading partners’ demand on the external side and labor shortages and broader capacity constraints on the domestic side. Severe weather events also remain a risk. Given underlying increase in core public spending in recent years, age-related spending pressures, and relatively high public debt, sustained fiscal consolidation and fiscal reforms, including in taxation, the pension, public wage and health systems, are needed to underpin long-term public debt sustainability. Deeper structural reforms would help boost growth and foster income convergence. Longer-term limits on employment growth call for reforms enhancing productivity growth, including improving regulatory quality, building human capital, and deepening the financial sector.
May 14, 2024
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper focuses on boosting productivity in Slovenia. Slovenia’s ageing population sets a constraint on the contribution of labor to gross domestic product in the end. Only achieve sustained increases in income and living standards can, therefore, through investment in physical and human capital and, more importantly, through enhancing productivity, historically the key growth driver. This paper summarizes historical trends in growth and productivity in Slovenia, examines the country’s strengths and weaknesses in terms of key factors affecting productivity identified in the literature. Since the scope for future labor contributions to growth in Slovenia is limited for demographic reasons—apart from further improvements to labor quality—the focus of economic growth policies should be on reinvigorating private investment, which has been low over the past decade, and pursuing labor and product market reforms that boost total factor productivity growth.
May 13, 2024
Maldives: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives
Description: Despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the Maldives’ economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has shown resilience. The cyclical rebound and still favorable economic outlook provide an opportunity for the Maldives to address its large fiscal and external vulnerabilities. This calls for immediate policy actions to rebuild economic resilience and reduce debt to a sustainable level. Given that the Maldives is highly vulnerable to climate change, early actions to rein in debt vulnerabilities will help support the Maldives’ efforts to scale up the much-needed climate adaptation investments in a resource constrained context.
May 13, 2024
Austria: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Austria
Description: Strong policy responses have helped to mitigate the impact of the recent shocks. Output recovered rapidly from the pandemic and, in response to the energy price shock, the authorities made use of available fiscal room to mitigate its impact while preserving price signals to encourage lower gas consumption and taking steps to secure access to additional gas supplies. Despite these efforts, the economy slipped into recession over the last few quarters, with high energy prices, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates weighing on output and demand. Inflation still persists above the euro-area average even as it has steadily declined since January 2023, in particular as services inflation has proved to be sticky amid high wage growth. Over the medium term, demographic headwinds pose significant fiscal and growth challenges.