Seminar on The Statistical Implications of Inflation Targeting

Washington, D.C., February 28–March 1, 2002
International Monetary Fund

In recent years, macroeconomic policy formulation has moved to more explicit use of statistics. A prominent example is inflation targeting, the monetary policy framework that is being adopted by a growing number of countries. While many of the conceptual aspects of inflation targeting have been studied, there has been little attention to the statistical issues: which statistics are needed? What does it take to compile them? And what is the role of the public sector, including the IMF, in encouraging good practice in compilation and use?

Monetary policy committees, rather than focusing exclusively on money and credit aggregates, look increasingly at market-based statistics, for instance at asset prices, and market-derived implicit inflation forecasts. Such data are at present not integrated into the IMF's typical data framework. This seminar provided an opportunity for statistical agencies and central banks to explore issues of common interest in this regard.

Preliminary Agenda

 Thursday, February 28

 

9:15 a.m.–9:30 a.m.

Opening Remarks by Horst Köhler,
Managing Director, IMF

9:30–11:15 a.m.

Session 1: Round Table: Information Requirements for Inflation Targeting
 

Malcolm Knight, Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada
Pali J. Lehohla, Statistician General, Statistics South Africa
Cyd Amador, Director of Research, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Svante Öberg, Director General, Statistics Sweden
Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia

Chair: Carol S. Carson, Director, Statistics Department, IMF

11:15 a.m.

Coffee Break

11:30 a.m.–1:00 p.m.

Session II: Defining and Measuring the Target
 

Amanda Rowlatt, Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom
Svein Longva, Director General, Statistics Norway
Vítor Gaspar, Research Director General, European Central Bank
Pablo García, Acting Chief Economist, Central Bank of Chile
Adriaan Bloem, Chief of Real Sector Division, Statistics Department, IMF

Chair: Paul Cheung, Chief Statistician, Department of Statistics, Singapore

1:15 p.m.

Luncheon by Invitation

3:00 p.m.–4:30 p.m.

Session III: Deriving Measures of Inflation and Inflation Expectations from the Market Data
 

Roger Clews, Head of Monetary Instruments and Markets Division, Bank of England
Meir Sokoler, Deputy Governor, Bank of Israel
Gustavo Bussinger, Director of Research, Research Department, Banco Central do Brasil
Tamim Bayoumi, Chief, World Economic Studies Division, Research Department, IMF
Vincent Reinhart, Director, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Chair: Mohsin Khan, Director, IMF Institute

4:30 p.m.

Coffee Break

4:45–5:45 p.m.

Discussion

Chair: Carol S. Carson, Director, Statistics Department, IMF

6:00 p.m.–7:30 p.m.

Reception
   

Friday, March 1

9:15 a.m.–10:45 a.m.

Session IV: Implications for the IMF
 

Armida San José, Chief, Financial Institutions II Division, Statistics Department, IMF
Edgar Ayales, Chief, Financial Institutions I Division, Statistics Department, IMF
Oldrich Dedek, Vice-Governor, Czech National Bank
Masahiko Takeda, Assistant Director, European I Department, IMF

Chair: Glenn Stevens, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia

10:45 a.m.

Coffee Break

11:00 a.m.–12:30 p.m.

Session V: Discussion and Taking the Agenda Forward

 

Carol S. Carson, Director, Statistics Department, IMF

Chair: Claudio Loser, Director, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF