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    Capital Flows — IMF Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference

    November 9–10, 2006
    HQ1-R-710, IMF Headquarters
    Washington, D.C.


    Disclaimer
    This website contains papers and web links to papers that will be considered at the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.

    The International Monetary Fund held the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) at its headquarters in Washington, DC, on November 9–10, 2006. The conference intended to provide a forum for discussing innovative research in economics, undertaken both by IMF staff and by outside economists, and to facilitate the exchange of views among researchers and policymakers.

    The conference was open to the public. To obtain (registration and) conference information, please send an e-mail with your name and affiliation to ARC2006@imf.org. The deadline for public registration was Friday, November 3, 2006. Please note that, for this event, invitations for visa purposes was extended only to the conference speakers.

    PROGRAM

    Day 1: Thursday, November 9, 2006
    8:45

    Introductory Remarks: Raghuram Rajan (IMF)

    10:00 - 11:00/strong>

    Session 1: Capital flows and Global Financial Imbalances (IMF)

      Chair: Jaime Caruana (IMF)
    • International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates by Frank Warnock (University of Virginia) and Veronica Cacdac Warnock (University of Virginia)

      Annual Research Conference (ARC) Presentation
    Discussant: Aart Kraay (World Bank) — ARC Presentation
    • Europe and Global Imbalances by Philip Lane (Trinity College Dublin) and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (IMF)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Menzie Chinn (University of Wisconsin) — ARC Presentation
    • Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances by Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Maryland, IMF), Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern California) and José-Víctor Ríos-Rull (University of Pennsylvania)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Linda Goldberg (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) — ARC Presentation
    11:00–11:15/strong>

    Coffee Break

    11:15–12:45/strong>

    Session 2: Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?

      Chair: Leslie Lipschitz (IMF)
    • The Marginal Product of Capital by Francesco Caselli (London School of Economics) and James Feyrer (Dartmouth College)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Chang-Tai Hsieh (University of California, Berkeley) — ARC Presentation
    • A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows by Jiandong Ju (University of Oklahama) and Shang-Jin Wei (IMF)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Rui Albuquerque (Boston University) — ARC Presentation
    12:45–2:30/strong>

    Lunch (by invitation, IMF Gallery)
    Luncheon remarks: Rodrigo de Rato (Managing Director, IMF)


    2:30–4:00

    Session 3: Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Volatility in Emerging Market Countries

      Chair: Mohsin Khan (IMF)
    • How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk-Sharing? Patterns and Channels by Ayhan Kose (IMF), Eswar Prasad (IMF) and Marco Terrones (IMF)
    Discussant: Bent Sorensen (University of Houston) — ARC Presentation
    • Financial Integration, Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare by Martin Evans (Georgetown University) and Viktoria Hnatkovska (University of British Columbia)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Fabrizio Perri (New York University) — ARC Presentation
    4:00–4:15

    Coffee Break

    4:15–5:45

    Mundell-Fleming Lecture

      Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries by Olivier Blanchard (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) — ARC Presentation
    7:00

    Dinner (by invitation)

     
    Day 2: Friday, November 10, 2006
    9:00-10:30

    Session 4: International Financial Integration and Economic Development: Micro-evidence

      Chair: Jonathan Ostry (IMF)
    • Foreign Banks in Poor Countries: Theory and Evidence by Enrica Detragiache (IMF), Thierry Tressel (IMF), and Poonam Gupta (Delhi School of Economics)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Stijn Claessens (World Bank) — ARC Presentation
    • International Financial Integration and Entrepreneurship by Laura Alfaro (Harvard Business School) and Andrew Charlton (London School of Economics)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Jean Imbs (University of Lausanne) — ARC Presentation
    10:30-10:45

    Coffee Break

    10:45-12:45

    Session 5: Balance-of-payments Crises: Prevention and Recovery

      Chair: Anoop Singh (IMF)
    • Does Moving to a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Reduce Currency Mismatches in Firms’ Balance Sheets? by Herman Kamil (IMF)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Mark Aguiar (University of Rochester) — ARC Presentation
    • Can We Predict the Next Capital Account Crisis? by Marcos Chamon (IMF), Paolo Manasse (University of Bologna) and Alessandro Prati (IMF).

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Carmen Reinhart (University of Maryland) — ARC Presentation
    • Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets by Guillermo Calvo (Inter-American Development Bank), Alejandro Izquierdo (Inter-American Development Bank) and Ernesto Talvi (Center for Study of Economic and Social Affairs)

      ARC Presentation
    Discussant: Roberto Rigobon (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)— ARC Presentation
    12:45-2:30

    Lunch (by invitation, IMF Gallery)


    2:30-4:00

    Session 6: Economic Forum: How Does Capital Account Liberalization Affect Economic Growth?


     

    Moderator: Raghuram Rajan (IMF)

    Panelists: Kristin Forbes (MIT), Joaquim V. Levy (Inter-American Development Bank), Eswar Prasad (IMF), Dani Rodrik (Harvard University).

    Organizing committee: Olivier Jeanne (Chair), Gianni De Nicolo, Andre Faria, Jaewoo Lee, Andrei Levchenko, Eduardo Ley, and Nicola Spatafora.
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