IMF/BIS Conference on Real Estate Indicators and Financial Stability

Washington, DC, October 27-28, 2003
International Monetary Fund
Room: B-702

As part of the IMF's ongoing work to develop Financial Soundness Indicators, the IMF's Statistics Department and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will be hosting a Conference on Real Estate Indicators and Financial Stability at IMF Headquarters during October 27-28, 2003. The conference, which is the first of this nature at the international level, will bring together officials and analysts from central banks, statistical institutes, international institutions, academic institutions, and private sector organizations.

The conference aims to:

  • promote the development of reliable and timely statistics on real estate prices;

  • share country experiences in efforts to improve the collection, compilation, and analysis of real estate prices;

  • examine methodological issues and identify issues that merit further attention; and

  • discuss avenues for the future development of national and international programs to compile and disseminate real estate price information.

Attendance at the conference is by invitation only. For further information please contact Russell Krueger (rkrueger@imf.org) or Subramanian Sriram (ssriram@imf.org). 



Agenda

Monday, October 27

9:30 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

Welcoming remarks
  • Horst Köhler, Managing Director (IMF)

  • Carol S. Carson, Director, Statistics Department (IMF)

  • Paul Van den Bergh, Head of Information, Statistics and Administration (BIS)

10:00 a.m.-11:30 a.m.

Impact of real estate on financial and monetary stability

Chair: Charles Enoch (IMF)
 
  • Robert Heath (IMF): Real Estate Prices as Financial Soundness Indicators

  • Haibin Zhu (BIS): The Importance of Property Markets for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

  • Thomas Helbling (IMF): Housing Price Bubbles—A Tale Based on Housing Price Booms and Busts
  • Shigenori Shiratsuka (Bank of Japan): Asset Price Bubble in Japan in the 1980s: Lessons for Financial and Macroeconomic Stability

  • Open discussion

11:30 a.m.-12:45 p.m.

Usefulness of available statistics

Chair: Martin Andersson (Sveriges Riksbank)
  • Stephan Arthur (BIS): Obtaining Real Estate Data: Criteria, Difficulties and Limitations

  • Rupert Nabarro (Investment Property Databank (IPD)): Performance Measurement & Real Estate Lending Risk

  • Boaz Boon (CapitaLand, Singapore): The Availability and Usefulness of Real Estate Data in Eastern Asia—A User's Perspective

  • Kathleen Stephansen (Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB)): A Special Feature

  • Open discussion
12:45 p.m.-2:00 p.m. Lunch

2:00 p.m.-3:45 p.m.

Country experiences in the compilation of real estate price indices and their use
Chair: Keith Hall (Reserve Bank of Australia)
  • Wensheng Peng (Hong Kong Monetary Authority): Real Estate Indicators in Hong Kong

  • Estrella Domingo (Philippines National Statistical Coordination Board): Real Estate Price Index: A Model for the Philippines

  • Christo Luüs (Absa Group, South Africa): The Absa Residential Property Market Database for South Africa—Key Data Trends and Implications

  • Bruce Grimm (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis): New Quality Adjusted Price indexes for Nonresidential Structures

  • Ivan Matalik (Czech National Bank): Real Estate Prices and CNB Monetary Policy

  • Open discussion

4:00 p.m.-4:45 p.m.

Methodological issues regarding residential real estate prices
Chair: Steven Landefeld (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
  • Susan Wachter (Wharton) and Bradford Case (U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System): Residential Real Estate Price Indexes as Financial Stability Indicators: Methodological Issues

  • Robert Wood (Bank of England): A Comparison of the UK Residential House Price Indices

  • Discussant: Paul Hilbers (IMF)

4:45 p.m.-5:30 p.m.

Methodological issues regarding commercial real estate prices
Chair: Steven Landefeld (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
  • Donald Haurin (Ohio State University): U.S. Commercial Real Estate Indexes: Transaction Based and Constant-Liquidity Indexes

  • Jon Southard (Torto Wheaton Research, United States): Going Where the Data is: TWR's Experience with Real Estate Values

  • Open discussion

Tuesday, October 28

9:00 a.m.-10:00 a.m.

Hedonic real estate price indices
Chair: Marc Prud'Homme (Statistics Canada)
  • Ana Luiza Barbosa (Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brazil): A Hedonic Housing Price Model for Brazil

  • Anne Laferrère (National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee), France): Hedonic Housing Price Indices: The French Experience

  • Open discussion

10:00 a.m.-11:15 a.m.

Aggregation issues
Chair: David Fenwick (United Kingdom Office for National Statistics)
  • Henning Ahnert (European Central Bank): Euro Area Residential Property Prices: The Aggregation of Non-Harmonised National Data

  • Stephan Arthur (BIS): Experience with Constructing Composite Asset Price Indices

  • Anthony Pennington-Cross (U.S. Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight): Aggregation Bias and the Repeat Sales Price Index

  • Discussant: Robert Shiller (Yale University)

  • Open discussion

11:30 a.m.-12:45 p.m.

Valuation of real estate in special situations
Chair: Javier Salas (Bank of Mexico)
  • Elvin Fernandez (International Valuation Standards Committee): Fair Valuation of Real Estate

  • Mary O'Rourke (Fitch Ratings): CMBS Loan Losses: Property Type Highlights and Trends

  • Jeffrey Fisher (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF), United States): US Commercial Real Estate Indices: The NCREIF Property Index

  • Open discussion
12:45 p.m.-2:15 p.m.

Lunch

2:15 p.m-4:15 p.m.

Areas of future work
Chairs: Carol S. Carson (IMF) and Paul Van den Bergh (BIS)
  • Donald Haurin (Ohio State University)

  • Ivan Matalik (Czech National Bank)

  • David Fenwick (United Kingdom Office for National Statistics)

  • Naseer Ahmad (State Bank of Pakistan)

  • Estrella Domingo (Philippines National Statistical Coordination Board)

  • Open discussion

4:15 p.m.-4:30 p.m.

Closing session
  • Paul Van den Bergh (BIS): Conclusion of conference and implications from the BIS perspective

  • Carol S. Carson (IMF): Conclusion of conference and implications from the IMF perspective