Training Catalog Session Details

Officials in Eximbank or CDB directly involved in lending decisions (loan officers, credit risk analysts); officials in the PBoC engaged in designing swap arrangements in EMs/LICs; officials from NDRC, China Export and Credit Insurance Corp, CIDCA, and other agencies engaged in lending/aid; and officials in the Ministries of Commerce, Foreign Affairs, and Finance overseeing lending/aid to EMs/LICs. Officials from borrowing countries responsible for macroeconomic and fiscal/budget projections.

Participants should have a degree in economics or finance. Experience with debt sustainability analysis, or credit risk analysis would be extremely useful.

This course, presented by the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, presents a comprehensive overview of the tools available to assist with debt sustainability analysis, with a special focus on how to use them to assess cases where it is proposed that investment be scaled up. It also covers the global architecture for debt resolution, when this is necessary. Among the topics covered are: Determination of a country's debt carrying capacity (both external and total debt) Checking forecasts for realism (with close attention to investment-growth linkages) Assessing contingent risks that exist due to gaps in data on total public debt Examining risks posed by shocks (natural disasters, commodity prices, market exposures) Bringing in other factors that could influence debt outcomes (assets, private debt, etc) Categorizing risks for external and total debt, and qualifying them Thinking about fiscal space for borrowing The IMF's Debt limits policy and international agreements on structuring lending How different approaches to financing investment could impact assessments Thinking about sustainability The process of private debt resolution The process for resolution of official debt at the Paris Club Creditor type and hierarchy Typical solutions deployed by negotiators in restructuring situations The IMF's policies when dealing with countries in a debt resolution situation (including the lending framework for exceptional access, the financing assurance policy and the lending into arrears policy) Lectures will be complemented by hands-on exercises using the IMF/WB debt sustainability templates, and participants will at times work in groups to consider scenarios and their implications for the evolution of debt vulnerabilities, and options to mitigate risks. A case study on a debt resolution will also be included.