Regional Economic Outlook

Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and North Africa

January 31, 2024

Description: Conflict Compounding Economic Challenges
The conflict in Gaza and Israel is yet another shock to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating an already challenging environment for neighboring economies and beyond. This Update covers economies in the MENA region and does not discuss developments in Israel. Overall, the major factors weighing on regional growth in MENA are (i) the impact of the conflict; (ii) oil production cuts (even as robust non-oil sector activity continues to support growth in several oil exporters); and (iii) continued necessary tight policy settings in several economies. Social unrest has also picked up. Projected growth in the MENA region this year is downgraded by 0.5 percentage point to 2.9 percent (relative to the October 2023 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia), from already weak growth of 2.0 percent in 2023. Primarily driven by the ongoing conflict in Sudan, average growth across low-income countries (LICs) in MENA is forecast to remain negative this year, continuing the estimated sharp decline in 2023. Disinflation is expected to continue in most MENA economies, although price pressures have proven persistent in some cases because of country-specific factors.

The outlook for the MENA region is highly uncertain, and downside risks are resurgent. An escalation or spread of the conflict beyond Gaza and Israel, as well as an intensification of the disruptions in the Red Sea, could have a severe economic impact, including on trade and tourism.

The appropriate policy response will depend on countries’ exposure to the conflict, preexisting vulnerabilities, and policy space. Crisis management and precautionary policies will be critical where the impact is acute, or risks are elevated. Elsewhere, countries will need to continue to fortify buffers.

Monetary policy will need to remain focused on price stability, and fiscal policy should be tailored to country needs and available fiscal space. Structural reforms remain critical to boosting growth and strengthening resilience in both the near and longer terms.

Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth

November 8, 2023

Description: Restoring Price Stability and Securing Strong and Green Growth

Europe is at a turning point. After last year’s crippling energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe faces the difficult task of restoring price stability now while securing strong and green growth in the medium term. Economic activity has started to cool and inflation to fall as a result of monetary policy action, phasing-out supply shocks, and falling energy prices. Sustained wage growth could, however, delay achieving price stability by 2025. Failing to tackle inflation now will risk additional growth damage in a world exposed to structural shocks from fragmentation and climate change. These global headwinds add to Europe’s long-standing productivity and convergence problems. To lift Europe’s potential for strong and green growth, countries need to remove obstacles to economic dynamism and upgrade infrastructure. This will strengthen business-friendly conditions and investment. Cooperation at the European level and with international partners will position Europe as a leader in the climate transition and support economic stability across the continent.

Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, October 2023

October 13, 2023

Description:

Securing Low Inflation and Nurturing Potential Growth

After a stronger-than-expected recovery from the pandemic and continued resilience in early 2023, economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is softening as the effect of tighter policies to combat inflation is taking hold and the external environment is weakening. The early and swift monetary tightening across the region since 2021, together with the withdrawal of most of the pandemic fiscal stimulus and the reversal of external price pressures, have helped put headline inflation on a downward trajectory. Core inflation has also started to ease, as price pressures are becoming less generalized, although it remains elevated amid strong labor markets and positive output gaps in some countries. Banking systems have weathered the rise in interest rates well and are generally healthy, though credit to the private sector is decelerating amid tighter supply conditions and weaker demand.

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2023

October 13, 2023

Description: Challenges to Sustaining Growth and Disinflation

The Asia-Pacific region remains a key driver of global growth in 2023, despite facing headwinds from changing global demand from goods to services and tighter monetary policies. The region is expected to grow by 4.6 percent in 2023, up from 3.9 percent in 2022. However, growth is projected to slow to 4.2 percent in 2024 and 3.9 percent in the medium term, as China's structural slowdown (Chapter 3 explains) and lower productivity growth in many other economies dampen the region's potential. Inflation is expected to decline in 2024 and stay within central bank target ranges in most countries, a faster pace of disinflation than in other regions (Chapter 2 explains.) Risks to the outlook have become more balanced than they were six months ago, although they still lean to the downside.

Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, October 2023

October 12, 2023

Description:

Building Resilience and Fostering Sustainable Growth

Across the Middle East and Central Asia, the combined effects of global headwinds, domestic challenges, and geopolitical risks weigh on economic momentum, and the outlook is highly uncertain. Growth is set to slow this year in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, although migration, trade, and financial inflows following Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, growth is set to moderate slightly this year.

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, October 2023

October 10, 2023

Description:

LIGHT ON THE HORIZON?

Still emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, countries in sub-Saharan Africa have been hit by a sluggish global economy, worldwide inflation, high borrowing costs, and a cost-of-living crisis. In many cases, inflation is still too high, borrowing costs are still elevated, exchange-rate pressures persist, and political instability is an ongoing concern. To ensure that the coming rebound is more than just a transitory glimpse of sunshine, it is important for authorities to guard against a premature relaxation of stabilization policies, while also focusing on reforms to both claw back lost ground from the four-year crisis and also to create new space to address the region’s pressing development needs.

Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia

May 3, 2023

Description: The economies of the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) proved resilient in 2022, despite a series of global shocks. However, this year—and potentially next—growth is expected to slow in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as tight policies to fight inflation, reduce vulnerabilities, and rebuild buffers start to dent economic activity in many countries, and agreed oil production cuts curb growth in oil exporters. Inflation is projected to remain persistent. The outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries depends heavily on external factors, namely the impact of monetary tightening, growth in their main trading partners, the pace of private transfers, and inflows of migrants from Russia. Uncertainty is high, and risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside amid financial stability concerns—particularly in advanced economies amid contagion fears. Policy trade-offs are even more complex, and policymakers will need to calibrate the policy mix carefully to reduce core inflation without triggering financial stress and excessive tightening and continue to provide targeted fiscal support to vulnerable groups while preserving debt sustainability and financial stability. Tight monetary and fiscal policies across the region amid tight global financial conditions call for accelerating structural reforms to bolster potential growth and enhance resilience.

Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific May 2023

May 1, 2023

Description: Despite weakening external demand and monetary tightening, domestic demand has so far remained strong, with China’s reopening providing fresh impetus. IMF Asia and the Pacific remains a dynamic region despite the somber backdrop of what looks to be shaping up as a challenging year for the world economy. Global growth is poised to decelerate as rising interest rates and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and banking strains in the United States and Europe have injected greater uncertainty into an already complex economic landscape. Asia’s domestic demand has so far remained strong despite monetary tightening, while external appetite for technology products and other exports is weakening. We project the region will contribute around 70 percent of global growth this year as its expansion accelerates to 4.6 percent from 3.8 percent in last year. China’s reopening will provide fresh momentum. Normally the strongest effect would be from demand for investment goods in China, but this time the biggest effect is from demand for consumption. Other emerging economies in the region are on track to enjoy solid growth, though in some cases at slightly lower rates than seen last year.

Regional Economic Outlook for Europe, April 2023

April 28, 2023

Description: Press Conference for the Economic outlook for Europe

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2023

April 14, 2023

Description: Growth in sub-Saharan Africa will decline to 3.6 percent this year. Amid a global slowdown, activity is expected to decelerate for a second year in a row. Still, this headline figure masks significant variation across the region. The funding squeeze will also impact the region’s longer-term outlook. A shortage of funding may force countries to reduce resources for critical development sectors like health, education, and infrastructure, weakening the region’s growth potential.