Working Papers
2016
August 2, 2016
Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?
Description: Japan has ambitious economic goals: 3 percent nominal growth; 2 percent inflation; and a primary budget surplus. Abenomics has employed the three arrows of monetary, fiscal and structural policies, but the goals remain out of reach. We propose that countercyclical measures be embedded in long-run frameworks that anchor expectations for inflation and public debt. In addition, we argue for an incomes policy to assist reflation. Model simulations suggest that, combined, these proposals would make headway towards the goals, with, on balance, a better chance of success than the more unconventional policy alternatives proposed by Krugman, Svensson, and Turner from a risk-return perspective.
July 28, 2016
Europe: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Description: This paper surveys European gender budgeting efforts, which have enjoyed sustained support for more than a decade and a half. In a number of countries, gender budgeting led to significant changes in budget legislation and administrative practices. In some countries, it is also possible to tie gender budgeting efforts to expenditure and revenue policy reforms. At a time of continued fiscal austerity in Europe, gender budgeting can help inform fiscal policies to ensure gender-related goals are met. Civil society has played an active role in advocating for effective gender budgeting.
July 28, 2016
Caribbean and Pacific Islands: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Description: Of the countries in the Caribbean and Pacific Islands, Timor-Leste has the most well-developed gender budgeting initiative. In the Pacific Islands, a few gender budgeting efforts were initiated but did not continue. In the Caribbean, there have been no well-developed gender budgeting efforts, although governments have undertaken policies to promote gender equality. We provide a number of recommendations to improve the effectiveness of gender budgeting efforts. Governments should link gender budgeting to national development plans, set realistic time expectations for achieving results, engage in capacity building with officials, draw upon strengths outside the government, and strengthen regional coordination.
July 28, 2016
Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Description: Gender budgeting is an approach to fiscal policy and administration that integrates considerations of women’s equality and advancement into the budget. Latin American countries have undertaken diverse gender budgeting initiatives, most of them addressing public expenditures. This paper surveys and assesses some key initiatives, including those in Mexico, Mexico City, Ecuador, Bolivia, and El Salvador, and briefly summarizes others. The five key initiatives offer different perspectives on how countries approach gender budgeting. We find that these initiatives are contributing to the reduction of gender inequality and the advancement of women in Latin America, though there is scope to strengthen them.
July 28, 2016
Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Description: Gender budgeting is an initiative to use fiscal policy and administration to address gender inequality and women’s advancement. A large number of sub-Saharan African countries have adopted gender budgeting. Two countries that have achieved notable success in their efforts are Uganda and Rwanda, both of which have integrated gender-oriented goals into budget policies, programs, and processes in fundamental ways. Other countries have made more limited progress in introducing gender budgeting into their budget-making. Leadership by the ministry of finance is critical for enduring effects, although nongovernmental organizations and parliamentary bodies in sub-Saharan Africa play an essential role in advocating for gender budgeting.
July 28, 2016
Middle East and Central Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Description: Gender budgeting uses fiscal policies to promote gender equality and women’s advancement, but is struggling to take hold in the Middle East and Central Asia. We provide an overview of two gender budgeting efforts in the region—Morocco and Afghanistan. Achievements in these two countries include increasing female primary and secondary education enrollment rates and reducing maternal mortality. But the region not only needs to use fiscal policies for women’s advancement, but also reform tax and financial laws, enforce laws that assure women’s safety in public, and change laws that prevent women from taking advantage of employment opportunities.
July 28, 2016
Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts
Description: This paper reviews gender budgeting efforts in Asia. The countries in the region have achieved mixed success in improving gender equality. Gender budgeting is ideally a fiscal innovation that translates gender-related goals into budgetary commitments and can help countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals with regard to gender equality. India has a sustainable gender budgeting model for the region, while a few countries in the region have begun such efforts more recently. The legislative mandates for gender budgeting in the Philippines and South Korea are remarkable achievements and are contributing to their efforts.
July 27, 2016
Gender Budgeting: Fiscal Context and Current Outcomes
Description: Gender budgeting is an approach to budgeting that uses fiscal policy and administration to promote gender equality and girls and women’s development. This paper posits that, properly designed, gender budgeting improves budgeting, and it places budgeting for this purpose in the context of sound budgeting principles and practices. The paper provides an overview of the policies and practices associated with gender budgeting as they have emerged across the world, as well as examples of the most prominent initiatives in every region of the world. Finally, it suggests what can be learned from these initiatives.
July 25, 2016
Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?
Description: For the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, China pledged to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of GDP by 60–65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. This paper develops a practical spreadsheet tool for evaluating a wide range of national level fiscal and regulatory policy options for reducing CO2 emissions in China in terms of their impacts on emissions, revenue, premature deaths from local air pollution, household and industry groups, and overall economic welfare. By far, carbon and coal taxes are the most effective policies for meeting environmental and fiscal objectives as they comprehensively cover emissions and have the largest tax base.
July 22, 2016
The Design of Fiscal Reform Packages: Insights from a Theoretical Endogenous Growth Model
Description: This paper studies the impact on growth, welfare, and government debt of fiscal reform packages in a theoretical model drawing together three key features of the endogenous growth literature: (i) investment in technology (in the form of human capital) offsets diminishing marginal productivity of private capital, allowing for perpetual growth in output per capita; (ii) changes in investment behavior because of cuts to distortionary tax rates impact long-run growth; and (iii) public capital has a role influencing total factor productivity and growth. A quantitative simulation using reasonable parameter values suggests that modest capital and/or labor income tax cuts and public investment increases have significant positive effects on consumer welfare but small effects on per capita income growth, where fiscal costs are offset by reductions in unproductive government spending. Capital income tax cuts and public investment increases continue to boost welfare when offset by consumption tax rises (rather than spending cuts), although the welfare benefits of modest labor income tax cuts are outweighed by the costs of a compensating consumption tax increase.