Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Policy Implications
IMF Working Papers, December 22, 2016
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Emre Alper, Niko A Hobdari, Ali Uppal
- Published: December 22, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475563115.001
Overview
- Paper analyzes food inflation trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2016 using two novel datasets of disaggregated CPI baskets.
- Authors: Emre Alper, Niko A Hobdari, Ali Uppal.
- Publication date: December 22, 2016.
- Series: Working Paper No. 2016/247, Issue: 247, Volume: 2016, Pages: 40.
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475563115.001.
- ISBN: 9781475563115. ISSN: 1018-5941.
Key Findings
- Average food inflation is higher than non-food non-fuel (NF/NF) inflation in SSA.
- Food inflation is more volatile than NF/NF inflation.
- Food inflation is similarly persistent as NF/NF inflation, especially in low-income countries (LICs) in SSA.
- Evidence that food inflation became less persistent from 2009 onwards, related to recent improvements in monetary policy frameworks.
- High food prices in SSA are driven mainly by non-tradable food.
- There is incomplete pass-through from world food and fuel prices and exchange rates to domestic food prices.
Drivers and Transmission
- Non-tradable food is identified as the main driver of high food prices in SSA.
- Pass-through channels from world food prices, fuel prices, and exchange rates to domestic food prices are incomplete.
Policy Implications and Recommendations
- Central banks in low-income countries with high and persistent food inflation should continue to pay attention to headline inflation to anchor inflation expectations.
- Other policy levers include:
- Reducing tariffs.
- Improving storage infrastructure.
- Improving transport infrastructure.
- Improvements in monetary policy frameworks after 2009 are associated with reduced persistence of food inflation.
Subject Tags and Keywords (as provided)
- Subject: Commodity price shocks, Exchange rates, Food prices, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Inflation persistence, Prices.
- Keywords: Africa, Commodity price shocks, consumer price inflation dispersion, Exchange rates, food inflation, Food prices, fuel inflation, Global, Inflation, inflation expectation, Inflation persistence, low income countries, NF inflation, Non-food non-fuel inflation, pass through, Sub-Saharan Africa, West Africa, WP.
Source: IMF Working Paper "Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Policy Implications" by Emre Alper, Niko A Hobdari, and Ali Uppal, December 22, 2016.
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- Food Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Causes and Policy