Working Papers
2015
November 30, 2015
Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports
Description: This paper analyzes how the formation of Global Value Chains (GVCs) has affected the exchange rate elasticity of exports. Using a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, we first find some suggestive evidence that the elasticity of real manufacturing exports to the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has decreased over time. We then examine whether the formation of supply chains has affected this elasticity using different measures of GVC integration. Intuitively, as countries are more integrated in global production processes, a currency depreciation only improves competitiveness of a fraction of the value of final good exports. In line with this intuition, we find evidence that GVC participation reduces the REER elasticity of manufacturing exports by 22 percent, on average.
November 25, 2015
Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?
Description: We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.
November 25, 2015
The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies Revisited: Evidence for Developing Countries
Description: Understanding who benefits from fuel price subsidies and the welfare impact of increasing fuel prices is key to designing, and gaining public support for, subsidy reform. This paper updates evidence for developing countries on the magnitude of the welfare impact of subsidy reform and its distribution across income groups, incorporating more recent studies and expanding the number of countries. These studies confirm that a very large share of benefits from price subsidies goes to high-income households, further reinforcing existing income inequalities. The results can also help to approximate the welfare impact of subsidy reform for countries where the data necessary for such an analysis is not available.
November 25, 2015
Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking
Description: Traditional theory suggests that more profitable banks should have lower risk-taking incentives. Then why did many profitable banks choose to invest in untested financial instruments before the crisis, realizing significant losses? We attempt to reconcile theory and evidence. In our setup, banks are endowed with a fixed core business. They take risk by levering up to engage in risky ‘side activities’(such as market-based investments) alongside the core business. A more profitable core business allows a bank to borrow more and take side risks on a larger scale, offsetting lower incentives to take risk of given size. Consequently, more profitable banks may have higher risk-taking incentives. The framework is consistent with cross-sectional patterns of bank risk-taking in the run up to the recent financial crisis.
November 25, 2015
How Do Public Debt Cycles Interact with Financial Cycles?
Description: We employ a duration model to study determinants of public debt cycles in 57 advanced and emerging economies over the 1960–2014 period, with a particular focus on the impact of financial cycles. The results suggest that the association between financial and debt cycles is asymmetric. Debt expansions preceded by overheating in credit and financial markets tend to last longer than other expansions, but there is no significant association between financial cycles and debt contractions. There is strong evidence of duration dependence in both phases of the cycle, with the likelihood of expansions and contractions to end increasing with the length of their respective spells. Higher initial level of debt increases the spell of contractions (persistence of adjustment effort hypothesis) and reduces the spell of expansions (debt sustainability hypothesis). This result is robust to the inclusion of global factors, openness, political stability, and debt crisis indicators as additional controls.
November 24, 2015
Resolution Frameworks for Islamic Banks
Description: Islamic banking is growing rapidly and its potential impact on global financial stability cannot be underestimated. International standards for resolving banks have evolved after the global financial crisis, culminating in the Financial Stability Board’s (“FSB”) Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions. This paper examines the applicability of the Key Attributes to the resolution of Islamic banks. It concludes that a number of issues would need to be addressed, owing to Islamic banks’ unique governance structures and balance sheets. It recommends international guidance for the design of robust Shari`ah -compliant resolution frameworks for jurisdictions with Islamic banks.
November 24, 2015
Recognizing the Bias: Financial Cycles and Fiscal Policy
Description: This paper argues that asset price cycles have significant effects on fiscal outcomes. In particular, there is evidence of debt bias—the tendency of debt to increase over the cycle— that is significantly larger for house price cycles than stand-alone business cycles. Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy generally respond to output fluctuations, whereas revenue increases due to house price booms are largely treated as permanent. Thus, neglecting the direct and indirect impact of asset prices on fiscal accounts encourages procyclical fiscal policies.
November 24, 2015
Informality in Paraguay: Macro-Micro Evidence and Policy Implications
Description: Paraguay’s economy features a high degree of informality. Based on different estimation approaches, informal activity represents more than half of total employment in Paraguay, a higher rate than those observed in its Latin American and the Caribbean peers. Theoretical and empirical considerations support the notion that regulations, enforcement policies, and government effectiveness are the ultimate determinants of informality. In all of these areas Paraguay performs weakly compared to regional peers. Using household and enterprise surveys, we find that Paraguay’s informal sector absorbs the most vulnerable workers but affects negatively medium and large firms in the formal sector. DSGE model simulations suggest that the optimal combination of policies to reduce informality is not straightforward, and needs to reflect the specific circumstances and objectives of the country.
November 24, 2015
Functional Income Distribution and Its Role in Explaining Inequality
Description: This paper is motivated by two parallel trends: the declining labor share of income and increasing inequality. Micro and macroeconomic data, covering up to 93 countries between 1970 and 2013, are used to assess whether the declining labor share of income has been a key factor driving growing inequality. The major conclusion is that changes in income inequality across a wide range of countries have been driven significantly by changes in the inequality of wages, while the distribution of income between labor and capital has not been a major factor.
November 24, 2015
Capital Account Liberalization and Inequality
Description: This paper examines the distributional impact of capital account liberalization. Using panel data for 149 countries from 1970 to 2010, we find that, on average, capital account liberalization reforms increase inequality and reduce the labor share of income in the short and medium term. We also find that the level of financial development and the occurrence of crises play a key role in shaping the response of inequality to capital account liberalization reforms.