Policy Papers
2016
July 6, 2016
Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office’s Report on the IMF and the Crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal - An Evaluation by the Independent Evaluation Office - Executive Board Meeting - July 19, 2016
Description: I welcome the report of the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on the Euro Area crisis programs. Their work provides an independent and in-depth account, which I have no doubt will make an important contribution to understanding the Fund’s approach to the crisis. As I have emphasized repeatedly, the IEO plays a vital role in enhancing the learning culture within the Fund, strengthening the Fund's external credibility, and supporting the Executive Board's institutional governance and oversight responsibilities.
July 1, 2016
2016 External Sector Report - Individual Economy Assessments
Description:
The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology).
In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty.
The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
July 1, 2016
2016 External Sector Report
Description:
After narrowing in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and remaining broadly unchanged in recent years, global imbalances increased moderately in 2015, amid a reconfiguration of current accounts and exchange rates. Shifts in 2015 were driven primarily by the uneven strength of the recovery in advanced economies, the redistributive effects of the sharp fall in commodity prices, and tighter external financing conditions for emerging markets (EMs). A relatively stronger U.S. outlook led to a further appreciation of the USD and a depreciation of the yen and the euro. The sharp decline in commodity prices, reflecting both supply shocks and concerns about rebalancing and growth in China, brought about a significant redistribution of income from commodity exporters to importers, and a weakening of commodity exporters’ currencies. Meanwhile, heightened global risk aversion, contributed to softer capital inflows and depreciation pressures in many EMs.
This moderate widening of current account imbalances was largely driven by systemic economies. Surpluses in Japan, the euro area and China grew, supported by improved terms of trade and currency depreciation, while the current account deficit in the U.S. widened amid the steep appreciation of the USD. These widening imbalances were only partially offset by narrowing surpluses in large oil exporters and smaller deficits in vulnerable EMs and some euro area debtor countries.
Similarly, excess imbalances expanded in 2015. External positions in the U.S. and Japan moved from being broadly in line with fundamentals to being “moderately weaker” and “moderately stronger”, respectively. This was partly offset by a further narrowing of excess deficits in vulnerable EMs and euro area debtor countries. Meanwhile, excess surpluses persisted among the larger surplus countries, some of which remain “substantially stronger” than fundamentals (Germany, Korea).
Currency movements since end-2015 helped to partially reverse the trends observed last year, although market volatility following the result of the U.K. referendum to leave the European Union have led to a strengthening of the USD and yen along with a weakening of the sterling, euro, and EM currencies. The implications for external assessments going forward, especially for the U.K. and the euro area, remains uncertain and will likely depend on how the transition is managed and on what new arrangements are adopted.
With output below potential in most countries, and limited policy space in many, balancing internal and external objectives will require careful policy calibration. In general, a more balanced policy mix that avoids excessive reliance on policies with significant demanddiverting effects is necessary, with greater emphasis on demand-supportive measures and structural reforms. Surplus countries with fiscal space have a greater role to play in supporting global demand while reducing external imbalances. Global collective policy action, especially if downside risks materialize, would also help address global demand weakness while mitigating its effects on external imbalances.
July 1, 2016
Gender Diversity in the Executive Board - Draft Report of the Executive Board to the Board of Governors
Description: The Report reflects discussion among Executive Directors on June 7, 2016 and responds to the April 16, 2016 Communique of the Thirty-Third Meeting of the IMFC which stated that “We reiterate the importance of maintaining the high quality and improving the regional, gender, and education diversity of the IMF’s staff, and of promoting gender diversity in the Executive Board.”
June 29, 2016
Report of the Managing Director to the Board of Governors and to the Executive Board Pursuant to Article XVIII, Section 4(c)
Description: This report is submitted pursuant the provisions of the Articles of Agreement relating to a general allocation or cancellation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR). The Articles provide for periodic consideration and decisions on SDR allocations or cancellations in the context of consecutive basic periods of normally five years of duration (Article XVIII, Section 2(a)). The Tenth Basic Period for a general allocation or cancellation of SDRs began on January 1, 2012 and is scheduled to end on December 31, 2016. The Eleventh Basic Period will commence on January 1, 2017.
June 27, 2016
Extension of the Periods for Consent to and Payment of Quota Increases
Description:
This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for members to consent to an increase in their quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas (“Fourteenth Review”) through December 30, 2016. The current deadline is due to expire on June 30, 2016. However, Board of Governors Resolution No. 66-2 provides that the Executive Board may extend the period for consent as it may determine. An extension under Resolution No. 66-2 will also extend the periods of consent for quota increases under the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice (Resolution No. 63-2) and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas (Resolution No. 53-2).
This paper also proposes a further six-month extension of the period for payment of quota increases under the Fourteenth Review, and an extension for the payment of the quota increases under the 2008 Reform, through December 30, 2016.
June 23, 2016
Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations
Description:
Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government
can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and
debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive
approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural
conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present
and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and
solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these
considerations involves careful analysis and judgment.
Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform
assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The
Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt
sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while
allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on
indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including
those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal
Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and
probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In
addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium
modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their
implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each
indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant
factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment,
informed by a broad range of tools.
This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund
staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help
inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging
markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country
team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to
inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund
surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the
appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.
Read More
June 20, 2016
Implementation Plan in Response to the Board-Endorsed Recommendations for the IEO Evaluation Report on Self-Evaluation at the IMF
Description:
This paper sets out Management’s response to the Independent Evaluation Office’s (IEO) evaluation report on Self-Evaluation at the IMF.
The implementation plan proposes specific actions to address the recommendations of the IEO that were endorsed by the Board in its September 18, 2015 discussion of the IEO’s report, namely: (i) adopt a broad policy or general principles for self-evaluation in the IMF, including its goals, scope, outputs, utilization, and follow-up; (ii) give country authorities the opportunity to express their views on program design and results, and IMF performance; (iii) for each policy and thematic review, explicitly set out a plan for how the policies and operations it covers will be self-evaluated; (iv) develop products and activities aimed at distilling and disseminating evaluative findings and lessons.
The implementation of some of these proposed actions is already underway. The paper also explains how implementation will be monitored.
June 8, 2016
Statement by the Managing Director on the Work Program of the Executive Board - Executive Board Meeting - June 8, 2016
Description: The Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda (GPA) presented to the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) in April called on member countries to reinforce their commitment to strong, sustainable, inclusive, job-rich, and more balanced global growth and to employ a three-pronged approach with monetary, fiscal, and structural actions (Figure 1). The global economy has been impaired by growth that has been too slow for too long, but it can get back on a stronger and safer track with a more forceful and balanced policy mix. Building on the approach of being agile, integrated, and member-focused, the GPA outlined how the Fund would support members in crafting a better policy mix toward durable global growth. The Fund would assist by clarifying the contours of available policy space, providing more tailored financial support and capacity development, and continuing to address new challenges.
June 7, 2016
Strengthening the Framework for Post Program Monitoring
Description: Post-Program Monitoring (PPM) is an important part of the Fund’s safeguards architecture. It provides a framework for closer engagement with members that have substantial outstanding Fund credit but are no longer in a program relationship, and helps identify risks and provide advice on policies that will assist these members in repaying the Fund. The significant expansion in Fund credit since the global financial crisis, much of it through medium-term financing of members with high access levels, puts a premium on this form of monitoring. The design and implementation of the current policy can be strengthened. Read More