Policy Papers
2024
April 4, 2024
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund’s Precautionary Balances
Description: On March 20, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board reviewed the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances. The review took place somewhat ahead of the standard two-year cycle, in view of the imminent attainment of the current indicative medium-term indicative target of SDR 25 billion for the first time. Precautionary balances comprise the Fund’s general and special reserves. They are a key element of the IMF’s multi-layered framework for managing financial risks. Precautionary balances provide a buffer to protect the Fund against potential losses, resulting from credit, income, and other financial risks. The review was based on the assessment framework established in 2010, which uses an indicative range for precautionary balances, linked to a forward-looking measure of total IMF non-concessional credit, to guide decisions on adjusting the medium-term target over time. While financial risks remain high, they are broadly unchanged from the last review, taking into account the further accumulation of reserves and strengthening of some risk mitigants. Against this background, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to retain the current medium-term target of SDR 25 billion and increase the minimum floor from SDR 15 billion to SDR 20 billion. The Board also supported maintaining the biennial review cycle, with earlier reviews if warranted by developments that could materially affect the adequacy of precautionary balances.
April 2, 2024
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024
Description: The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
April 1, 2024
Mongolia—Assessment Letter for the Asian Development Bank
Description: This letter updates the assessment of Mongolia’s economic conditions since the conclusion of the IMF’s 2023 Article IV consultation on September 14, 2023. The assessment has been requested in relation to the program loan under the Asian Development Bank’s Policy Based Lending modality.
March 19, 2024
Extension of Temporary Increase in Normal Access Limits Under the General Resources Account
Description: The IMF extended the current temporarily higher General Resources Account (GRA) normal annual and cumulative access limits, 200 percent of quota and 600 percent of quota, respectively, until end-2024. Initially, access limits were temporarily increased for 12 months in March 2023. The extension reflects the still uncertain global economic environment. Importantly, it helps bridge the gap to the comprehensive review of access limits planned for the second half of 2024, which will review access limits in the context of the developments of the nominal value of access limits against relevant macroeconomic aggregates and the outcomes of the 16th General Review of Quotas (GRQ). The impact on GRA resources and risks to the Fund from the extension of higher access limits are expected to be manageable.
March 11, 2024
Industrial Policy Coverage in IMF Surveillance— Broad Considerations
Description: The paper aims to provide a conceptual framework and guiding principles for the coverage of Industrial Policy (IP) in IMF surveillance. It proposes a working definition of industrial policy, discusses its objectives and main instruments, and provides a brief review of academic literature on IP. The paper discusses the four broad sets of considerations for assessing IP: justification, design, cost-benefit assessment, and implementation. It stresses that IP should be covered in IMF surveillance when it is deemed macro-critical and/or has the potential to generate significant cross-border spillovers. The paper also discusses specific aspects of industrial policies, including trade-related IP, green IP, Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and provides examples of the IP coverage in the Article IV consultations with China, Euro Area, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
March 6, 2024
Rollback of Credit Arrangements in the New Arrangements to Borrow
Description: This paper presents a proposal for aggregate reduction of the New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB) by 16.8 percent (SDR 61.3 billion), while broadly preserving relative shares of NAB participants, in line with guidance by the BoG Resolution No. 79-1 on the Sixteenth General Review of Quotas (adopted on December 15, 2023). The objective is to maintain the Fund’s lending capacity as a result of the proposed 50 percent quota increases, conditional on a reduction (“rollback”) in the NAB credit arrangements and taking into account also the expiration of the 2020 Bilateral Borrowing Agreements. Changes in NAB credit arrangements require high levels of support from NAB participants. A safeguard mechanism allows the rollback to become effective provided that participants representing at least 90 percent of credit arrangements have consented to this proposal. The effectiveness of the rollback of NAB credit arrangements would be tied to the effectiveness of the quota increases under the Sixteenth General Review of Quotas.
February 20, 2024
Review of the Policy on Staff-Monitored Program With Executive Board Involvement
Description: This paper reviews the policy on Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement (PMB). The PMB plays an important niche role in the Fund’s toolkit in supporting members in circumscribed circumstances, while not supplanting the Staff-Monitored Programs (SMPs) as the primary tool for building or rebuilding a track record towards a Fund arrangement that supports a UCT-quality program. Experience with the PMB is limited to three country cases over the past sixteen months. Further experience would be needed to draw more definitive conclusions in terms of the usefulness of the PMB vis-à-vis alternative instruments and a more parsimonious Fund toolkit. In this context, the PMB is kept in the toolkit, and it will be expected to be reviewed in three years.
January 30, 2024
Operational Guidance Note On Program Design and Conditionality
Description: This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
January 12, 2024
Interim Guidance Note on Mainstreaming Gender at The IMF
Description: This interim note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the IMF’s Strategy Toward Mainstreaming Gender. It offers a comprehensive overview of how IMF staff can integrate macrocritical gender issues into the IMF’s core areas of surveillance, lending, and capacity development. Key topics include i) identifying and assessing macrocritical gender gaps; ii) the “light touch” and “deep dive” approaches; iii) early insights on integrating gender into IMF-supported programs; iv) capacity development on gender or with a gender lens; v) synergies with other workstreams and vi) the importance of collaboration. It also includes summaries and links to relevant tools, databases, IMF staff reports, and relevant literature.
January 5, 2024
List of IMF Member Countries with Delays in Completion of Article IV Consultations or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments Over 18 Months
Description: In accordance with the Executive Board Decision No. 15106-(12/21), the Fund will publish on its external website a list of member countries whose Article IV consultations or mandatory financial stability assessments have been delayed by more than 18 months, as of December 15, 2023, since the expected deadline for conclusion. The latest version of this list, as shown in Appendix I, will be published on the Fund’s external website on or after Tuesday, January 2, 2024.