IMF Policy Discussion Papers
2000
June 1, 2000
The Role of MULTIMOD in the IMF's Policy Analysis
Description: This paper describes the basic structure, underlying philosophy, and key behavioral properties of MULTIMOD. It also focuses on several recent applications of macromodels in the IMF’s policy analysis, emphasizing that most questions put forward for analysis with models like MULTIMOD are initially posed in ways that cannot be addressed by simply pushing a computer key. Meaningful macromodel-based policy analysis requires a sensibly structured and parameterized macromodel, but it also generally requires considerable probing of the nature of the policy issues in order to reformulate policy questions in terms of well-defined exogenous shocks.
June 1, 2000
Capital Flight from Russia
Description: This paper documents the scale of capital flight from Russia, compares it with that observed in other countries, and reviews policy options. The evidence from other countries suggests that capital flight can be reversed once reforms take hold. The paper argues that capital flight from Russia can only be curbed through a medium-term reform strategy aimed at improving governance and macroeconomic performance, and strengthening the banking system. Capital controls result in costly distortions and should gradually be phased out as part of that medium-term strategy.
May 1, 2000
Raising Growth and Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: What Can be Done?
Description: This paper argues that sub-Saharan Africa’s growth performance needs to be improved substantially in order to raise standards of living to an acceptable level and achieve a visible reduction in poverty. The paper provides a broad overview of the explanations for sub-Saharan Africa’s unsatisfactory growth performance in the past, paying particular attention to the empirical literature. It argues that growth has been hampered by economic distortions and institutional deficiencies that have increased the risk of investing in Africa, and lowered the rates of return on capital and labor as well as the growth of total factor productivity.
April 1, 2000
Exchange Rate Regimes in Selected Advanced Transition Economies: Coping with Transition, Capital Inflows, and EU Accession
Description: Since beginning economic transition, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovenia have—with much success—employed diverse exchange rate regimes. As these countries approach EU accession, they will need to avoid the perils of too much or too little exchange rate variability when capital flows are likely to be large and volatile; narrow band arrangements in particular could be problematic. The exception is Estonia, where there are good arguments for retaining the currency board arrangement. Countries wishing to join the euro area at an early stage should not leave the removal of remaining capital controls to the last minute.
March 1, 2000
Interventions in Banks During Banking Crises: The Experience of Indonesia
Description: Interventions in banks are often an integral element of a government’s program for addressing a systemic banking crisis. Interventions may be warranted because the banks are deeply insolvent or riddled with fraud; they may be requiring substantial liquidity support. In some circumstances closures may be more effective than open bank resolution. There were four major sets of bank closures in Indonesia between November 1997 and March 1999. The initial closures were subject to criticism, but the more recent ones were viewed more positively. This paper looks at these experiences, and draws conclusions about closing banks in a systemic crisis.
February 1, 2000
Pros and Cons of Currency Board Arrangements in the Lead-Up to EU Accession and Participation in the Euro Zone
Description: Historically, countries with currency board arrangements (CBAs) have experienced lower inflation and higher growth than those with other regimes. The experiences of three candidates for EU membership with CBAs (Estonia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria) have also been generally favorable. Can CBAs serve these transition countries well all the way up to the adoption of the euro? After considering the pros and cons, this paper provides an affirmative answer, but notes that to preserve the viability of their CBAs throughout the process, these countries need to maintain strict policy discipline and be prepared to deal with large capital inflows and asymmetric shocks.
1999
December 1, 1999
Inflation Targeting: What is the Meaning of the Bottom of the Band?
Description: This paper investigates the meaning of the bottom of target bands in inflation targeting regimes. It is argued that the design of lower limits on target bands, if not done with care, can lead to a lack of transparency, potentially confusing markets about how the authorities will react to a fall in inflation. After first discussing the conceptual issues, the paper then examines the experience with target bands in New Zealand, Israel and Canada and explores how the conceptual issues have played out in practice.
July 1, 1999
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy of Transition Economies of Central and Eastern Europe after the Launch of EMU
Description: The more advanced Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) face an evolving set of considerations in choosing their exchange rate policies. On the one hand, capital mobility is increasing, and this imposes additional constraints on fixed exchange rate regimes, while trend real appreciation makes the combination of low inflation and exchange rate stability problematic. On the other hand, the objectives of EU and eventual EMU membership make attractive a peg to the euro at some stage in the transition. The paper discusses these conflicting considerations, and considers the feasibility of an alternative monetary framework, inflation targeting.
July 1, 1999
Would Saving U.S. Social Security Raise National Saving?
Description: Analysts agree that raising national saving is one of the key objectives of social security reform in the United States. Hence, to judge the merits of proposals requires a comparison of saving responses. The paper outlines the difficulties involved in making those comparisons, which arise from the unsustainability of the current social security system and the uncertainty regarding the use of projected budget surpluses. Building on previously developed arguments, it discusses three typical reform plans and also draws some conclusions about the relationship between social security reform and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy.
July 1, 1999
A Modernized Approach to Managing the Risks in Cross-Border Capital Movements
Description: This paper outlines a “modern” approach to managing risks in cross-border capital movements that is consistent with an environment of increased and liberalized capital flows. Key elements of this approach include: a consistent monetary and exchange rate policy mix to avoid incentives for volatile capital flows; prudential management of the specific risks in capital flows; supporting financial sector reforms; and appropriate sequencing of liberalization. The approach can reduce the potential size of the shocks associated with capital movements and increase the resilience of the financial system to such shocks when they occur; overtime, it is expected to reduce the need for recourse to capital controls.