The Role of MULTIMOD in the IMF's Policy Analysis
IMF Policy Discussion Papers, June 1, 2000
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Peter Isard
- Published: June 1, 2000
- Series: IMF Policy Discussion Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451972689.003
Overview and scope
- Paper describes the basic structure, underlying philosophy, and key behavioral properties of MULTIMOD.
- Emphasizes several recent applications of macromodels in the IMF’s policy analysis.
- Stresses that most questions posed for analysis with models like MULTIMOD are initially posed in ways that cannot be addressed by simply pushing a computer key.
- Argues that meaningful macromodel-based policy analysis requires:
- a sensibly structured and parameterized macromodel, and
- considerable probing of the nature of policy issues to reformulate policy questions in terms of well-defined exogenous shocks.
Key findings and behavioral properties
- MULTIMOD’s usefulness depends on its structure, parameterization, and the careful formulation of exogenous shocks.
- Policy questions must often be reformulated from their initial, imprecise form into well-defined exogenous shocks suitable for model analysis.
- Effective use of macromodels requires substantive analyst engagement beyond mechanical model execution.
Applications and implications for policy analysis
- Focuses on several recent applications of macromodels within IMF policy work (examples described in the paper).
- Highlights the importance of probing policy issues and reformulating them before model experiments are run.
- Suggests that macromodels like MULTIMOD are tools that support, but do not replace, analytical judgment in policy evaluation.
Subject classification and keywords
- Subject: Conventional peg, Exchange rate arrangements, Exchange rates, Expenditure, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Prices
- Keywords: Conventional peg, exchange rate, Exchange rate arrangements, Exchange rates, Global, imprudent monetary policy reaction, Inflation, inflation expectation, interest rate, macroeconomic policy analysis, monetary policy, MULTIMOD, MULTIMOD philosophy, PDP, reaction function, way MULTIMOD
Disclaimer
- "This Policy Dicussion Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate"
Source: IMF Policy Discussion Paper landing page for "The Role of MULTIMOD in the IMF's Policy Analysis" (June 1, 2000).
Content in this bundle
- The Role of MULTIMOD in the IMF's Policy Analysis - PDP/00/05