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More Diversified Trade Can Make Middle East and Central Asia More Resilient

May 13, 2024
Reducing trade barriers, easing regulatory constraints, and upgrading infrastructure can mitigate challenges and help countries leverage new opportunities.

Maldives: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Maldives

May 13, 2024
Despite headwinds from the war in Ukraine, the Maldives’ economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has shown resilience. The cyclical rebound and still favorable economic outlook provide an opportunity for the Maldives to address its large fiscal and external vulnerabilities. This calls for immediate policy actions to rebuild economic resilience and reduce debt to a sustainable level. Given that the Maldives is highly vulnerable to climate change, early actions to rein in debt vulnerabilities will help support the Maldives’ efforts to scale up the much-needed climate adaptation investments in a resource constrained context.

Kiribati: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kiribati

May 10, 2024
Kiribati’s economy recovered strongly from the pandemic on the back of supportive fiscal measures including subsidies, grants, and (most recently) an increase in civil service wages. Inflation, which has decelerated from its recent peak, is projected to pick up again mainly due to increased domestic demand. Kiribati is among the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. Infrastructure gaps compound already challenging constraints imposed by distance and dispersion, limiting the development of the private sector in the state-dominated economy, and cementing its reliance on imports, especially for essential commodities such as food and fuel.

Pakistan: Second and Final Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan

May 10, 2024
The signs of economic stabilization are strengthening, with gradual disinflation underway and external pressures easing further since the first review on the back of improved fiscal balances. However, the outlook remains challenging, with downside risks remaining exceptionally high.

FY2025–FY2027 Medium-Term Budget

May 10, 2024
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund approved the 2025-27 financial years (FY25-27) medium-term budget. While the global economy has shown resilience to successive adverse shocks, the overall global economic context remains complex with slow and uneven growth, increased fragmentation, deepening divergence, and still high interest rates despite easing inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, the FY25-27 budget continues to be guided by principles of agility and budget discipline, reinforced by ongoing reprioritization and savings capture. It also builds on strong cooperation with other institutions, ensuring the Fund continues to focus on areas within its mandate, even as it addresses new demands. Work to strengthen internal operations also continue, focusing on both efficiency and effectiveness in meeting changing needs in the post-pandemic workplace, where rapid technological changes are underway. With significant demands within a constrained budget environment, the budget reflects difficult tradeoffs.

Kiribati: Selected Issues

May 10, 2024
Selected Issues

Georgia: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Stress Testing the Central Bank Balance Sheet and Developing Hedging Markets

May 10, 2024
This CD engagement covered two distinct areas to help the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) deliver on its price stability mandate, it: 1) provided a forward-looking analysis of the NBG’s balance sheet to assess its policy solvency and to help institutionalize such a process, and 2) outlined a strategy to develop hedging instruments in interest rate and foreign exchange (FX) markets to support monetary policy transmission. With virtually no interest-bearing liabilities, the NBG balance sheet is robust. Under the adverse shock, it improves on account of FX revaluation gains. Higher inflation also helps, since the need for a higher policy rate generates larger domestic interest income. Institutionalizing this analysis allows for early warning of the need to reduce dividend payments (or for re-capitalization) thereby supporting operational independence. Georgia has made good progress on many of the enabling conditions for developing hedging markets, but several structural factors provide challenges. A supportive regulatory environment is in place, market infrastructure is robust, and there is a range of instruments available to serve as the underlying instrument for derivatives. However, there is a lack of heterogeneity of financial risk profile and appetite amongst participants. Recommendations include setting up a standardized FX forward trading platform, pushing for upgrades of banks’ treasury management systems, supporting the targeted education and training efforts of the Georgian Financial Markets Treasuries Association, revising the current FX forward index to be more informative by publishing outright transacted rates; and publishing Overnight Indexed Swap benchmarks.

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