China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

ByGee Hee Hong, Jaewoo Lee, Wei Liao

May 26, 2016

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Asia and China made disproportionate contributions to the slowdown of global trade growth in 2015. China’s import growth slowed starkly, driven by both external and domestic factors, including a rebalancing of demand. Econometric results point to weak investment and rebalancing as the main causes of the import slowdown. Spillover effects from China’s rebalancing are estimated for some 60 countries using value-added trade data, and are found to be more negative on Asia and commodity exporters than others.

Subject: Consumption, Export performance, Exports, Global value chains, Globalization, Imports, International trade, National accounts

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, capital goods, China's consumption, Consumption, consumption demand increases, consumption growth, consumption imports, exchange rate, Export performance, Exports, Global, Global value chains, growth shock, import demand, import growth, import growth slowdown, Imports, investment demand, investment growth, spillovers, trade elasticities, trade linkages, trading partners, upstream trade partner, WP

Pages:
46
Volume:
2016
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484368565.001
Issue:
105
Series:
Working Paper No. 2016/105
Stock No:
WPIEA2016105
ISBN:
9781484368565
ISSN:
1018-5941

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