China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks

March 7, 2016

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Alexei P Kireyev, and Andrei Leonidov. China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2016) accessed November 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.

Subject: Export earnings, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, Imports, International trade, Spillovers, Trade balance

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China's imports, Demand shock, Export earnings, Exports, Global, Import demand shock, Import shock, Imports, Imports slowdown, Merchandise imports, Middle East and Central Asia, Network, Network effect, Shock spillover, Shocks, Spillback, Spillin, Spillover, Spillovers, Sub-Saharan Africa, Trade, Trade balance, Trade network, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

45
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/051
Stock No:

WPIEA2016051
ISBN:

9781513555850
ISSN:

1018-5941

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