Export Spillovers from Global Shocks for the Middle East and Central Asia

May 9, 2014

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper quantifies the effect of realized and potential global growth disappointments on export volumes from the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Estimates of export elasticities with respect to trading partner GDP indicate non-oil export volumes are relatively responsive while service exports are less responsive. Downward revisions to global GDP growth for 2011–14 have impeded export performance, and the possibility of disappointing GDP growth in Europe and emerging markets presents further downside risks for exports. The Maghreb countries are particularly sensitive to developments in Europe, while CCA countries are more susceptible to growth in the BRICS.

Subject: Commodities, Exports, International trade, Oil, Oil exports, Oil prices, Prices, Service exports

Keywords: Caucasus, CCA country, CCA export, CCA oil exporter, CCA oil importer, Central Asia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Europe, export loss, export response, exports, Global, goods export, Gravity model, growth shock, Maghreb, MCD goods export, Middle East, Middle East and Central Asia, North Africa, Oil, oil exporter, Oil exports, oil importer, Oil prices, Service exports, services export, spillovers, trade, trading partner, WP

Pages:
31
Volume:
2014
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484380796.001
Issue:
080
Series:
Working Paper No. 2014/080
Stock No:
WPIEA2014080
ISBN:
9781484380796
ISSN:
1018-5941

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