Inward and Outward Spillovers in the SACU Area

ByJorge I Canales Kriljenko, Farayi Gwenhamo, Saji Thomas

January 31, 2013

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to systematically affect growth developments in BLNS countries as a group. Nevertheless, vector autoregressions, which allow country-specific parameters, suggest some strong spillovers onto the smaller economies.

Subject: Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, Foreign exchange, Imports, International trade, Real exchange rates, Spillovers, Terms of trade

Keywords: Africa, amount South Africa, BLNS country, Exports, Global, Imports, imports from the world, intra SACU trade, Intraregional trade distribution, Real exchange rates, SACU area, SACU Customs revenue formula, South Africa act, South Africa import, South Africa's Gdp, Southern Africa, Spillovers, Sub-Saharan Africa, sub-Saharan Africa economy, Terms of trade, WP

Pages:
24
Volume:
2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475522419.001
Issue:
031
Series:
Working Paper No. 2013/031
Stock No:
WPIEA2013031
ISBN:
9781475522419
ISSN:
1018-5941

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