Demographic Change in Asia: The Impacton Optimal National Saving, Investment, and the Current Account

ByIan S McDonald, Serge Bésanger, Ross Guest

June 1, 2000

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.

Subject: Aging, Consumption, Demographic change, Labor productivity, National accounts, Population and demographics, Production

Keywords: Aging, Consumption, consumption demand, consumption weight, consumption-smoothing effect, Current Account Balance, Demographic change, Demography, Europe, Investments, Labor productivity, national saving, ratio, saving, saving pattern, saving performance, saving rate decrease, saving ratio, Savings, support ratio, wealth-consumption ratio, WP

Pages:
42
Volume:
2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451853858.001
Issue:
115
Series:
Working Paper No. 2000/115
Stock No:
WPIEA1152000
ISBN:
9781451853858
ISSN:
1018-5941

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