Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation

April 1, 2011

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

James P Walsh. Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2011) accessed November 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.

Subject: Commodity price shocks, Consumer price indexes, Food prices, Inflation, Inflation persistence

Keywords: Core inflation, Math, Nonfood inflation, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

21
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2011/071
Stock No:

WPIEA2011071
ISBN:

9781455227082
ISSN:

1018-5941

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