Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries

By Kamilya Tazhibayeva, Aasim M. Husain, Anna Ter-Martirosyan

November 1, 2008

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Format: Chicago

Kamilya Tazhibayeva, Aasim M. Husain, and Anna Ter-Martirosyan. Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed November 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Oil, Oil prices

Keywords: Oil price, Output, Price, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

21
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/253
Stock No:

WPIEA2008253
ISBN:

9781451871111
ISSN:

1018-5941

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