Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status

By Yaroslav D Lissovolik, Bogdan Lissovolik

August 1, 2004

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Yaroslav D Lissovolik, and Bogdan Lissovolik. Russia and the WTO: The "Gravity" of Outsider Status, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2004) accessed November 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this "outsider" status has been affecting Russia's export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995-2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may resolve the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade.

Subject: Econometric analysis, Export restrictions, Exports, Gravity models, International trade, Trade balance, Trade barriers, Trade policy

Keywords: Export restrictions, Exports, Global, Gravity model, Gravity models, Russia, Russia's export, Trade, Trade balance, Trade barriers, WP, WTO, WTO accession, WTO coefficient, WTO country, WTO member, WTO variable

Publication Details

Pages:

43
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2004/159
Stock No:

WPIEA1592004
ISBN:

9781451857702
ISSN:

1018-5941

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