Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach

March 1, 2000

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Format: Chicago

Alexei P Kireyev. Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2000) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.

Subject: Balance of payments, Commodities, Current account, Current account balance, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Oil, Oil prices, Prices

Keywords: Arab countries, Arab country, Country-specific variable, Current account, Current account balance, Economic growth, Fiscal stance, Macroeconomic dynamics, Null hypothesis, Oil, Oil country, Oil prices, Oil-producing country, Panel data, Program countries group, Program country, Terms of trade, VAR, VAR model, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

52
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2000/054
Stock No:

WPIEA0542000
ISBN:

9781451847505
ISSN:

1018-5941

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