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How Has Dollarization Served Timor-Leste So Far?

December 20, 2024
This paper analyzes Timor-Leste’s historical economic performance and structure under dollarization. It considers several dimensions that determine the benefits and costs of the regime: (i) growth and inflation performance; (ii) business and financial cycle synchronization; (iii) adjustment to external shocks; and (iv) competitiveness. Dollarization has helped Timor-Leste achieve relatively low and stable inflation in the context of post conflict fragility, but may be contributing to weakening competitiveness. Improved performance under dollarization requires reduced fiscal imbalances and advancement of reforms that address structural bottlenecks that also undermine competitiveness.

Sierra Leone: Climate Policy Diagnostic

December 19, 2024
Sierra Leone faces important development challenges. This includes dealing with the impacts of climate change such as rising temperatures, more frequent extreme hot days, and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns, with intensified single-day precipitation events. This is especially important given the country’s strong dependence on agriculture and hydropower. Climate change also requires improved Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and more forward-looking risk assessments. On the mitigation side, competing development needs have led to rapid urbanization and deforestation requiring a more integrated approach to land policy, planning, and forest protection. The country also needs substantial investments in its electricity, water, and waste sectors but private investment is lacking. The mission reviewed the current fiscal policies supporting climate action and provided recommendations to support the long-term climate resilience in Sierra Leone, while aligning with its overall development objectives.

Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries

December 19, 2024
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.

The Union of the Comoros: Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria -Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Union of the Comoros

December 19, 2024
Following the January 14 presidential election, President Azali announced a new cabinet in July, introducing several new and youthful faces into the political scene. Amid this political transition, Comoros’ economy is showing signs of softening coupled with inflationary pressures driven by accelerating food prices. Credit to the private sector has slowed throughout this year as importers deleveraged following the significant ramp-up in borrowing over the last two years to meet high import prices. Import volumes—notably food products—have declined during 2024H1 while exports and public investment have both been lower than expected. Tax revenue administration efforts were hampered by post-elections unrest, the cholera epidemic, and severe weather events during the first half of 2024. Nonetheless, the external sector remains stable with adequate reserve cover above 7 months of imports.

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