High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance to Develop a Macroeconomic Framework at the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina

By Tibor Hlédik, Maria Arakelyan, Rilind Kabashi

February 26, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Tibor Hlédik, Maria Arakelyan, and Rilind Kabashi. "Bosnia and Herzegovina: Technical Assistance Report-Technical Assistance to Develop a Macroeconomic Framework at the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina", High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports 2025, 005 (2025), accessed April 24, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229002110.029

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Summary

Technical assistance to develop a macroeconomic framework was delivered to the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CBBH) between April 2021 and December 2023. The Quarterly Macro Forecasting Framework (QMFF) developed during this project is a quarterly framework whose main behavioral equations are specified in terms of deviations of real variables from their long-run trends. The framework is a novel combination of a gap-based modeling approach and financial programing. This novel approach was custom-built for the CBBH, but it has the flexibility to be adjusted to accommodate the macroeconomic characteristics of various countries and different exchange rate regimes, as well as to incorporate backward- or forward-looking expectation formation. While considerable progress has been achieved in the operation of the QMFF, more time and resources are needed to fully utilize and integrate the QMFF as the CBBH’s main policy analysis and forecasting tool.

Subject: Fiscal policy, Macro-fiscal framework

Keywords: CBBH counterpart, Financial Programming and Policies, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Forecasting tool, Gap Models, Macroeconomic Framework, Macro-fiscal framework, OCE team member, Policy analysis, TA project

Publication Details

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