Departmental Papers

December 23, 2011

Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities Stemming from the Global Economic Crisis: The Case of Swaziland

Description: Swaziland has faced a significant fiscal crisis since 2010, in the wake of loss of transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The fiscal crisis has led to increasing vulnerabilities, not only of public finances but also on commercial banks and the private sector. This paper provides an analysis of Swaziland's main macroeconomic vulnerabilities and the main policy implications of the analysis.

August 25, 2011

South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations

Description: This paper examines whether a mix of tighter fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, and greater reserve build-up would increase growth and depreciate the rand in real terms. The experience of South Africa over the last twenty years is looked at using a number of econometric techniques that control for the external environment.

January 1, 2011

In the Wake of the Global Economic Crisis: Adjusting to Lower Revenue of the Southern African Customs Union in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland

Description: The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is facing its biggest challenge in its 100 years of existence. The global economic crisis has significantly reduced its revenue outlook, which is having a disproportionate impact on its smaller member countries, and which calls for an appropriate policy response. This paper discusses specifically the implications for Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland, and provides recommendations regarding the proper fiscal response by these countries to the decline in SACU revenue.

May 27, 2010

Expenditure Composition and Economic Development in Benin

Description: This paper analyzes expenditure composition and economic development in Benin. It addresses some specific issues on the basis of a stylized model of the Beninese economy that highlights the tradeoff between expenditure on wages and investment. The model takes into account specific characteristics of the Beninese economy, including the large share of agriculture in employment and GDP, the large number of urban unemployed engaged in precarious informal sector activities, and the strong influence of labor unions in the formal labor market concentrated in the urban areas.

Notes: Also available in French.

May 25, 2010

Wage Policy and Fiscal Sustainability in Benin

Description: This paper analyzes the impact of Benin's public wage policy on medium and long-term fiscal and debt sustainability. The main findings are that if the wage bill continues to increase in line with recent trends, debt and fiscal sustainability could be compromised by excessive deficits or by crowding out growth-enhancing public investment. The study shows that with fiscal policy guided by targets aimed at maintaining debt sustainability, population growth, and the intent to progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, there will be little space for civil service pay increases. Limiting wage bill increases to maintain fiscal sustainability is only a first step in the authorities' broader objective of reforming the civil service.

Notes: Also available in French.

December 15, 2009

Spillover Effects and the East African Community: Explaining the Slowdown and the Recovery

Description: The East African Community (EAC) countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda) have been affected by the global financial crisis and global recession. The fall in global demand and inflows and tighter liquidity conditions abroad affected the countries in this region as elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. But how hard have countries in the EAC been hit? Have the spillovers from the global crisis affected countries in the region as much as other countries in the sub-Saharan region? Have the transmission channels or magnitudes of the spillovers been different across EAC countries? How can these countries return quickly to a path of sustained high growth? What is the role for policy? Would acceleration of regional integration and policy coordination help achieve this goal? Would it make the region less susceptible to shocks? This paper focus on the EAC countries and attempts to address these questions.

December 15, 2009

Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy in East African Community Countries

Description: The concomitant external shocks experienced in 2008-09 by the East African Community (EAC) countries of Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda and stepped-up support by the IMF—including the SDR allocation—and other donors, are likely to arouse renewed interest in the question of the adequate level of international reserves. This paper discusses the evolution of reserve holdings in EAC countries and uses several tools for assessing reserve adequacy in the region. The analysis suggests that reserve levels in most cases seem to include safety buffers, and thus, do not require immediate action. However, the situation could become tighter if export recovery is delayed or export prices do not pick up. Over the medium term, the desirable reserve path should also be adapted to regional and international integration.

December 15, 2009

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Description: This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rates of sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial crisis. In particular, it analyzes the reasons behind the differences in the magnitude and volatility of the exchange rates among countries. To this end, it takes a sample of seven countries, four members of the East African Community (EAC) (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda), and three others, which experienced large exchange rate losses at the onset of the crisis: Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia. First, it analyzes the movements of the exchange rates with respect to the U.S. dollar and two other major currencies. Second, it tries to link the magnitude of their movements to key factors, relating to the external environment and the countries’ internal policies.