Working Papers
2024
May 24, 2024
Exploring the Role of Public Expenditure in Advancing Female Economic Empowerment and Gender Equality
Description: This paper discusses connections between female economic empowerment and government spending. It is an abbreviated overview for non-gender-experts on how fiscal expenditure may support female economic empowerment as an interim step toward advancing gender equality. From this perspective, it offers a preliminary exploration of key factors and indicators associated with gender-differentiated impacts in each of five main categories of public spending (education, health, capital expenditure, government employment and compensation, and social protection and labor market programs). It examines and proposes indices within each category that can be used to identify and measure related gender gaps and suggests associations and connections between those indices, public spending, and other available proxy measurements with some benchmarking potential which is summarized at the end of each category in a Gender Lens Matrix for ease of reference. The paper draws on an extensive literature review and examination of publicly available datasets. It also highlights and discusses gaps in data which limit gender analysis. The purpose of the paper is to advance dialogue on the adoption of a gendered approach to government spending, by providing a gender lens that may assist country level assessments and discussions among IMF staff and member country authorites.
May 24, 2024
E-Commerce During COVID in Spain: One “Click” Does Not Fit All
Description: The share of e-commerce in total credit-card spending boomed during Covid in Spain. In particular, women, youth, and urban consumers used e-commerce proportionally more during the pandemic, especially for services. Using a unique proprietary dataset on credit card transactions, we test conjectures about consumers’ behavior (based on fear, hoarding, or learning) during Covid. Overall, e-commerce share reverted to its pre-Covid trend as the pandemic waned. However, some consumers with lower pre-Covid e-commerce usage tend to permanently use more e-commerce, supporting the conjecture of “learning by locking” for these individuals.
May 24, 2024
Hanging Out to Dry? Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Drought in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Description: Using a comprehensive drought measure and a panel autoregressive distributed lag model, the paper finds that worsening drought conditions can result in long-term scarring of real GDP per capita growth and affect long-term price stability in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS), more so than in other countries, leaving them further behind. Lower crop productivity and slower investment are key channels through which drought impacts economic growth in FCS. In a high emissions scenario, drought conditions will cut 0.4 percentage points of FCS’ growth of real GDP per capita every year over the next 40 years and increase average inflation by 2 percentage points. Drought will also increase hunger in FCS, from alreay high levels. The confluence of lower food production and higher prices in a high emissions scenario would push 50 million more people in FCS into hunger. The macroeconomic effects of drought in FCS countries are amplified by their low copying capacity due to high public debt, low social spending, insufficient trade openness, high water insecurity, and weak governance.
May 24, 2024
Examining Price-Wage Dynamics in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Uruguay
Description: The recent increase of inflation globally has led to a renewed interest in understanding the link between inflation and wages. In Uruguay, the presence of centralized wage bargaining and indexation practices raises the question as to what extent wage growth dynamics can make the response of inflation to shocks more persistent. We use a medium-scale DSGE model which incorporates indexation in the wage setting equation to analyze the interactions between wage setting behavior and other macroeconomic variables, as well as the role of monetary policy. The analysis suggests that wage indexation increases the persistence of the response of inflation to domestic and foreign shocks, it also affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the severity of the trade-offs faced by the central bank.
May 17, 2024
A Framework for Systemwide Liquidity Analysis
Description: We developed a novel Systemwide Liquidity (SWL) framework to identify liquidity stress in the system that goes beyond banks and to assess the role played by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in episodes of liquidity stress. The framework, which complements standard liquidity and interconnectedness analyses, traces the flow of liquidity among various agents in the economy and explores possible transmission channels and amplification mechanisms of correlated liquidity shocks. The framework uses unique balance sheet and asset encumbrance data to demonstrate the importance of assessing liquidity at the system level by allowing for (i) analyses of each agent’s contribution to liquidity stress, (ii) analyses of the impact of different behavioral assumptions (e.g., pecking order of collateral utilization, negative externalities of fire-sales and margin positions), and (iii) policy simulations. Since this framework covers a comprehensive set of financial instruments and transactions, it paves the way for harmonization of systemwide liquidity analysis across countries. We applied this general framework to Mexico in the context of the FSAP. Results for Mexico show that commercial banks safeguard the resiliency of the financial system by backstopping the liquidity needs of other agents. Moreover, certain sectors appear more vulnerable when binding regulatory liquidity constraints trigger risk-averse behavioral responses.
May 17, 2024
New Perspectives on Quantitative Easing and Central Bank Capital Policies
Description: Central banks have come under increasing criticism for large balance sheet losses associated with quantitative easing (QE), and some observers have also argued that QE helped fuel the post-COVID-19 inflation boom. In this paper, we reconsider the conditions under which QE may be warranted considering the recent high inflation experience. We emphasize that the merits of QE should be evaluated based on the macroeconomic stimulus it provides and its effects on the consolidated fiscal position, and not simply on central bank profits or losses. Using an open economy DSGE model with segmented asset markets, we show how QE can provide a sizeable boost to output and inflation in a deep recession and improve the consolidated fiscal position—even if the central bank experiences considerable losses. However, the commitment-based features of QE and the possibility that upside inflation risks are bigger than recognized pre-pandemic call for more caution in using QE closer to full employment. We then consider how central banks might modify their policies for allocating profits to the government in light of large-scale losses. In short, we suggest that a more forward-looking and risk-based approach may be desirable in helping protect central bank financial autonomy and ultimately independence.
May 17, 2024
Sovereign Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing: Chasing Elusive Sustainability
Description: This paper evaluates the progression of the sovereign ESG landscape since the initial comprehensive assessment of the sector in 2021 in “Demystifying Sovereign ESG” by conducting a comparative analysis of the current sovereign ESG methodologies of commercial ESG providers. The 2021 study articulated the distinct nature of the sovereign ESG segment from corporate ESG and documented fundamental shortcomings in sovereign ESG methodologies, such as the “ingrained income bias”, lack of consensus on environmental performance, and conflation of risk and sustainability objectives. While sovereign ESG methodologies have evolved since 2021, the significant correlation across providers of aggregate, S, and G scores persist. In response to market demand there has been a notable shift towards greater focus on the E pillar against growing heterogeneity on climate and environmental considerations across ESG providers. The findings underscore the disparity between perceptions and realities in implementing a sustainability strategy within the sovereign debt asset class. This necessitates a reevaluation of sovereign ESG scoring methodologies towards outcome-based metrics and urges a globally coordinated effort to establish robust sustainability measurement frameworks.
May 17, 2024
EMDE Central Bank Interventions during COVID-19 to Support Market Functioning
Description: This paper examines emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) central bank interventions to maintain financial stability during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through empirical analysis and case study reviews, it identifies lessons for designing future programs to address challenges faced in EMDEs, including less-developed financial markets and lower levels of institutional credibility. The focus is on the functioning of the financial markets that are key to maintaining financial stability—money, securities, and FX funding markets. Several lessons emerge, including: (i) objectives should be well-specified and communicated to facilitate eventual exit; (ii) intervention triggers should prioritize liquidity metrics over prices; (iii) actions should be sufficiently large to address market dysfunction; (iv) the risks of fiscal dominance and moral hazard should be minimized; and (v) program design should incentivize self-liquidation by appropriate pricing or through short-term operations that quickly liquidate. While interventions may increase risks to central bank balance sheets, potentially challenging policy solvency and operational independence, a well-designed framework can significantly mitigate these risks.
May 17, 2024
Echoes Across Borders: Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Description: This paper quantifies the macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict within sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using a new Conflict Spillover Index (CSI), which accounts for conflict intensity and distance from conflict-affected countries. Our findings reveal an escalation in conflict spillovers across SSA since 2011, marked by considerable cross-country heterogeneity. Impulse responses show that conflict spillovers shocks significantly and persistently hinder economic growth, while concurrently elevating inflation in the “home” country. Conflict spillover shocks are also associated with increases in (current) government spending and government debt. Furthermore, the international trade transmission channel of spillovers operates mostly through increased imports, while negative effects on FDI winddown over time. Moreover, state-dependent impulse responses underscore the importance of good governance, fiscal space, and foreign aid in attenuating the adverse macroeconomic spillover effects of conflict. The detrimental impact of conflict on output is more severe in environments with weaker governance and limited fiscal space. Government expenditures tend to rise following a spillover shock in contexts of high governmental effectiveness, possibly reflecting the use of policy buffers to respond to shocks. In that context, the papers shed light on important factors to promote resilience in SSA economies.
May 10, 2024
Intra-African Migration: Exploring the Role of Human Development, Institutions, and Climate Shocks
Description: We examine push and pull factors, including demographic, geography, culture, economic and human development, politics and climate, and uncover the key determinants shaping migration patterns within Africa. Our findings emphasize the significance of political (instability, ethnic tensions) and socio-demographic (human development, common language, population size and structure) factors, climate shocks, along with economic motivations, in driving intra-African migration. Understanding these multifaceted factors is vital for policymakers in formulating effective strategies to leverage human capital mobility to promote sustainable development in the region.