IMF Working Papers

Understanding Trade Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa

By Hany Abdel-Latif, Khushboo Khandelwal, Longmei Zhang

February 21, 2025

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Format: Chicago

Hany Abdel-Latif, Khushboo Khandelwal, and Longmei Zhang. "Understanding Trade Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa", IMF Working Papers 2025, 045 (2025), accessed March 25, 2025, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229001915.001

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Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper explores export and import dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), both regionally and across various country groups. The findings underscore the significant associations that domestic demand and exports have with import changes, albeit the magnitude of these associations varies across countries. Variations in consumption and investment are highly correlated with changes in imports across the region and in nearly all country groups. Changes in exports are also associated with increased import growth, with this link being most notable in resource-intensive countries. Furthermore, an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate is correlated with reduced import growth in East African countries, while resource-intensive countries experience a less pronounced correlation. Exports, on the other hand, show a strong sensitivity to global economic cycles, reflecting the region's reliance on commodities. Finally, the correlation between exchange rates and exports exhibits considerable heterogeneity across countries.

Subject: Exports, Foreign exchange, Imports, International trade, Oil exports, Real effective exchange rates, Trade balance

Keywords: AfCFTA, Export determinant, Export determinants, Exports, Global, Import change, Import demand, Imports, Oil exports, Real effective exchange rates, Sub-Saharan Africa, Trade balance, Trade dynamics, Understanding trade dynamics

Publication Details

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