Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict

June 7, 2024

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Sidra Rehman, and Laura Jaramillo. Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.

Subject: Climate change, Environment, Food security, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Poverty

Keywords: Climate change, Conflict, Conflict intensity, East Africa, Food security, IMF working paper No. 24/112, Impact of weather, Middle East, Natural disasters, Precipitation, Precipitation shock, Temperature, Weather shock

Publication Details

Pages:

16
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2024/112
Stock No:

WPIEA2024112
ISBN:

9798400277818
ISSN:

1018-5941

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