Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
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Summary:
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2024/112
Subject:
Climate change Climate policy Environment Food security Migration Natural disasters Population and demographics Poverty
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
June 7, 2024
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400277818/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2024112
Format:
Paper
Pages:
16
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