Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings

Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan

September 29, 2023

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Levan Gogoberishvili, and Ömer E. Bayar Reassessing GDP Growth in Countries with Statistical Shortcomings - A Case Study on Turkmenistan, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2023) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Reliable national accounts are essential for proper economic analyses and informed policymaking by national authorities as well as other stakeholders. Nevertheless, in many countries, national accounts statistics are subject to serious shortcomings, which are often manifested as overestimated growth rates. In cases where official data are not adequate for surveillance, IMF staff compile alternative estimates by applying various forecasting methods. This study proposes a more holistic, bottom-up approach, which is based on the compilation of GDP by the expenditure method with limited source data. The study also discusses the case of Turkmenistan, where this method was implemented in practice.

Subject: Consumption, Economic sectors, Exports, Financial crises, Gross fixed investment, Household consumption, Imports, International trade, National accounts

Keywords: Central Asia and the Caucasus, Commodity trade statistics database, Consumption, Data shortcoming, Data shortcomings, Exports, Forecasting method, GDP, Global, Gross fixed investment, Growth estimates, Household consumption, IMF working paper 23/207, Imports, National accounts, Reassessing GDP growth

Publication Details

Pages:

27
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2023/207
Stock No:

WPIEA2023207
ISBN:

9798400256646
ISSN:

1018-5941

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