Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes

By Xuequan Elsie Peng, Chima Simpson-Bell

July 15, 2022

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Xuequan Elsie Peng, and Chima Simpson-Bell. Assessing the Impact of Business Closures on COVID-19 Outcomes, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed December 25, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

In this paper, we present a framework for assessing the effectiveness of different business closure policies, using New York City as a case study. Business closure policies have been widely implemented in an attempt to slow down the pandemic, but it is difficult to measure the contribution of closures of specific industries to virus transmission. Our framework allows us to estimate the impact of specific industry closures on the spread of COVID-19 via their effects on aggregate mobility. We find that early reopening led to a prolonged pandemic and a large case surge in the second wave during 2020, though the reopening allowed the city to regain its economic function as a consumption hub. An alternative policy that extends the lockdown is found to be more cost-effective as it makes future traveling safer and prevents the economy from relapsing into a more stringent policy regime.

Subject: Capacity utilization, Consumption, COVID-19, Health, Health care, National accounts, Population and demographics, Production

Keywords: Business closure policy, Capacity utilization, Cases data, Closure policy, Consumption, COVID-19, Data construction, Destination industry, Health care, IMF working papers, Industry closure, Industry contribution, Lockdown policy, North America, Policy impact summary, Policy timeline

Publication Details

Pages:

34
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2022/139
Stock No:

WPIEA2022139
ISBN:

9798400213472
ISSN:

1018-5941

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