The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic

By Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan David Ostry, Nour Tawk

August 7, 2020

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Format: Chicago

Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Jonathan David Ostry, and Nour Tawk. The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2020) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Countries have implemented several containment measures to halt the spread of the 2019 coronavirus disease, but it remains unclear the extent to which these unprecedented measures have been successful. We examine this question using daily data on the number of coronavirus disease cases as well as on real-time containment measures implemented by countries. Results suggest that these measures have been very effective in flattening the “pandemic curve”, but there is significant heterogeneity across countries. Effectiveness is enhanced when measures are implemented quickly, where de facto mobility is curtailed, in countries with lower temperatures and population density, as well as in countries with a larger share of the elderly in total population and stronger health systems. We also find that easing of containment measures has resulted in an increase in the number of cases, but the effect has been lower (in absolute value) than that from a tightening of measures.

Subject: Aging, COVID-19, Education, Health, Population and demographics

Keywords: Aging, Containment measure, Containment measures, Containment policy, Containment stringency index, Country characteristic, Covid-19, Global, Health sector, Pandemics, Stringency index, Time trend, Types containment, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

42
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2020/159
Stock No:

WPIEA2020159
ISBN:

9781513550268
ISSN:

1018-5941

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