An Estimated DSGE Model to Analyze Housing Market Policies in Hong Kong SAR

April 13, 2018

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Pau Rabanal. An Estimated DSGE Model to Analyze Housing Market Policies in Hong Kong SAR, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2018) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

During the last decade, Hong Kong SAR has experienced a large increase in house prices and credit, prompting the authorities to respond with several rounds of tightening macroprudential rules and increasing stamp duty taxes. This paper provides a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Hong Kong SAR and analyzes the effectiveness of these measures, and finds that they have helped reduce house price appreciation and household leverage. A baseline small open economy real business cycle model is extended by including a housing sector, financial frictions, foreign demand for the domestic housing stock, and is estimated using Bayesian methods and data for Hong Kong SAR between 1996 and 2017. The paper finds that, without these policies, house prices would have been 10.5 percent higher, and the household credit-GDP ratio 14 percent higher.

Subject: Consumption, Housing, Housing prices, Labor, Labor supply, National accounts, Prices, Taxes, Transaction tax

Keywords: Consumption, Demand shock, Hong Kong SAR, Hong Kong SAR government, Housing, Housing market, Housing price growth, Housing prices, Labor supply, LTV cap, LTV ratio, Macroprudential Policies, Preference shock, Stamp duty tax, Stamp Duty Taxes, Transaction tax, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2018/090
Stock No:

WPIEA2018090
ISBN:

9781484347577
ISSN:

1018-5941

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