A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle

By Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini, Yiqun Li

January 24, 2018

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Benjamin Carton, Joannes Mongardini, and Yiqun Li. A New Smartphone for Every Fifth Person on Earth: Quantifying the New Tech Cycle, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2018) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The enormous global demand for smartphones in recent years has created a new global tech cycle. In 2016 alone, global smartphone sales reached close to 1.5 billion, one for every fifth person on earth. In turn, this has engendered complex and evolving supply chains across Asia. We show that the new tech cycle cannot be captured by standard seasonality, but depends on smartphone product release dates. Decomposing cycle from trend, we also show that the sale of smartphones may have peaked in late 2015. Asia, however, continues to gain in importance as the global tech manufacturer.

Subject: Export performance, Exports, International trade, Mobile internet, Technology

Keywords: Apple iPhones, Asia and Pacific, China, China exports decomposition, Electronics export order, Export, Export order, Export performance, Exports, Global, Global supply chains, Global trade, Mobile internet, Release date, Samsung smartphone, Smartphone, Smartphone export cycle, Smartphone release, Tech cycle, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

22
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2018/022
Stock No:

WPIEA2018022
ISBN:

9781484339695
ISSN:

1018-5941

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