Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues

By Anastasia Guscina, Sheheryar Malik, Michael G. Papaioannou

November 15, 2017

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Anastasia Guscina, Sheheryar Malik, and Michael G. Papaioannou Assessing Loss of Market Access: Conceptual and Operational Issues, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Loss of market access (LMA) is a central element and an exacerbator of balance of payments and fiscal crises. This paper provides an operational definition of LMA, examines the predictive power of potential LMA leading indicators, attempts to determine the likely nature (temporary versus structural) of an LMA episode, and analyzes potential implications of such an assessment on the required degree of adjustment to restore market access. Finally, it highlights the possible application of the methodological framework for identifying emerging risks to market access.

Subject: Bonds, Credit ratings, Debt sustainability, External debt, Financial institutions, Financial services, Money, Public debt, Yield curve

Keywords: Bond Spreads, Bonds, Credit ratings, Debt market, Debt sustainability, Default, Global, LMA episode, LMA event, LMA indicator, LMA risk, LMA variable, Market access, Sovereign Debt Restructuring, WP, Yield curve

Publication Details

Pages:

63
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2017/246
Stock No:

WPIEA2017246
ISBN:

9781484324936
ISSN:

1018-5941

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