Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects

By Chris Papageorgiou, Christian Henn, Theo S. Eicher

March 1, 2008

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Chris Papageorgiou, Christian Henn, and Theo S. Eicher Trade Creation and Diversion Revisited: Accounting for Model Uncertainty and Natural Trading Partner Effects, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Trade theories covering Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) are as diverse as the literature in search of their empirical support. To account for the model uncertainty that surrounds the validity of the competing PTA theories, we introduce Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to the PTA literature. BMA minimizes the sum of Type I and Type II error, the mean squared error, and generates predictive distributions with optimal predictive performance. Once model uncertainty is addressed as part of the empirical strategy, we report clear evidence of Trade Creation, Trade Diversion, and Open Bloc effects. After controlling for natural trading partner effects, Trade Creation is weaker - except for the EU. To calculate the actual effects of PTAs on trade flows we show that the analysis must be comprehensive: it must control for Trade Creation and Diversion as well as all possible PTAs. Several prominent control variables are also shown to be robustly related to Trade Creation; they relate to factor endowments and economic policy.

Subject: Bayesian models, Customs unions, Econometric analysis, International trade, North American Free Trade Agreement, Plurilateral trade, Trade agreements, Trade balance

Keywords: Bayesian models, Central America, Evidence of trade creation, Factor endowments, Model uncertainty, North American Free Trade Agreement, North-South trade, Plurilateral trade, PTA coefficient, PTA trade creation, Robustness analysis, Trade agreements, Trade balance, Trade creation effect, Trade flow, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

30
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/066
Stock No:

WPIEA2008066
ISBN:

9781451869286
ISSN:

1018-5941

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