The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States

By Benjamin L Hunt, Dirk V Muir, Martin Sommer

May 1, 2015

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Benjamin L Hunt, Dirk V Muir, and Martin Sommer. The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2015) accessed November 12, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.

Subject: Balance of payments, Commodities, Current account, Economic sectors, Energy prices, Energy pricing, External position, Foreign assets, Natural gas sector, Oil, Prices

Keywords: Blue line GEM result, Business cycle, Current account, Energy consumption, Energy prices, Finite-planning-horizon household, Foreign assets, General equilibrium models, GIMF, Global, Income effect, Macroeconomic interdependence, Medium-term equilibrium, Monetary policy, Natural gas price, Natural gas sector, Oil, Oil price drop, Oil shocks, Policy, Price, Price differential, Price elasticity of supply, Price movement, Price of energy, Red line GIMF result, Substitution effect, Supply and demand, Trade balance, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2015/092
Stock No:

WPIEA2015092
ISBN:

9781484353189
ISSN:

1018-5941

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