The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes

By Reinout De Bock, Irineu E de Carvalho Filho

January 11, 2013

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Format: Chicago

Reinout De Bock, and Irineu E de Carvalho Filho. The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Subject: Balance of payments, Central bank policy rate, Currencies, Current account balance, Depreciation, Exchange rates, Financial services, Foreign exchange, Money, National accounts

Keywords: Africa, Central bank policy rate, Currencies, Currency, Currency risk factors, Currency weakness, Current account balance, Depreciation, Exchange rates, Global, Mean reversion, Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar, Risk-off episode, Risk-off Episodes, Safe haven currencies, U.S. dollar, Ukrainian hryvnia, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

34
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/008
Stock No:

WPIEA2013008
ISBN:

9781557755308
ISSN:

1018-5941

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