Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes

February 1, 2010

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Format: Chicago

Andrew J Swiston. Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper investigates Central America's external linkages over the last fifteen years of increased integration in light of the 2008-09 global recession. Using structural VAR models, it is found that a one percent shock to U.S. growth shifts economic activity in Central America by 0.7 to 1 percent, on average. Spillovers from global shocks and the rest of the region also affect activity in some countries. Spillovers are mostly transmitted through advanced country financial conditions and fluctuations in external demand for Central American exports. Shocks to advanced economies associated with the 2008-09 financial crisis lowered economic activity in the region by 4 to 5 percent, on average, accounting for a majority of the observed slowdown. The impact was almost twice as large as elasticities estimated on pre-crisis data would have predicted. These results underscore the importance of operating credible policy frameworks that enable a countercyclical policy response to external shocks.

Subject: Business cycles, Financial crises, Remittances, Spillovers, Structural vector autoregression

Keywords: External shock, IMF staff calculation, Real GDP, Trade, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

37
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2010/035
Stock No:

WPIEA2010035
ISBN:

9781451962765
ISSN:

1018-5941

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