Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns

February 14, 2014

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Format: Chicago

Oumar Diallo, and Sampawende J Tapsoba. Rising BRICs and Changes in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Business Cycle Patterns, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2014) accessed November 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.

Subject: Business cycles, Economic growth, Exports, International trade, Plurilateral trade, Trade balance, Trade relations

Keywords: Africa, And the BRICs., Business cycle correlation, Business cycle literature, Business Cycle Synchronicity, Business cycle synchronization, Business cycles, Exports, Fiscal policy, Global, Industry trade, Plurilateral trade, Sub-Saharan Africa, Trade, Trade balance, Trade intensity, Trade relations, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2014/035
Stock No:

WPIEA2014035
ISBN:

9781484306598
ISSN:

1018-5941

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