Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa
IMF Working Papers, May 1, 2007
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Vivek Arora
- Published: May 1, 2007
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451866872.001
Key findings
- Transparency of monetary policy in South Africa has increased substantially since the end of the 1990s.
- Recent years show South African private sector forecasters:
- Have become better able to forecast interest rates.
- Are less surprised by reserve bank policy announcements.
- Are less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts.
- There is some evidence that the accuracy of inflation forecasts has increased.
- Improvements in interest rate and inflation forecasts have exceeded those in real output forecasts, suggesting that increases in reserve bank transparency are likely to have played a role.
Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Economic forecasting, Exchange rates, Inflation, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy transparency
- Keywords: exchange rate, interest rate, market, WP