Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia

April 1, 2012

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Format: Chicago

Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul. Modeling with Limited Data: Estimating Potential Growth in Cambodia, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2012) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.

Subject: Labor, Output gap, Potential output, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Aggregate production function, Cambodia, Export diversification, Global, Growth diagnostics, Investment rate, Math, Output gap, Phillips curve, Potential output, Productivity, Productivity gain, Productivity improvement, Productivity level, Productivity term, Saving rate, Total factor productivity, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

18
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/096
Stock No:

WPIEA2012096
ISBN:

9781475502862
ISSN:

1018-5941

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